We’re now a few days into May, and unsurprisingly, the New York Yankees sit atop the AL East. While they are facing a bit of competition, they have the chance to pad a slim lead in the division heading into a homestand against a Texas Rangers group trying to snap a bit of a recent skid.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for today’s Rangers vs. Yankees matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rangers vs. Yankees prediction, preview

Texas Rangers

At 16-18, the Rangers are somehow second place in a poor AL West. They’ve dropped two of their last three games and are just 4-6 across their last 10, also sitting just 9-10 on the road this season. Expectations prior to the start of the year were that the bats may look better than last year’s disappointing order, but that hasn’t been the case yet. The team scores just 3.74 runs per game, third fewest, and holds a .686 OPS that ranks 26th in the MLB on a .235/.313/.373 slash line. The .138 ISO is uninspiring and their 31 home runs are 23rd as well. It’s easy to see why the offense has underperformed, but an 0.39 BB/K only further reinforces why perhaps things are going poorly at the plate in Arlington. That means the story is quite similar to last year, especially since the arms are throwing well. The Rangers’ pitching staff holds a 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, marks which rank fifth and sixth among all teams. they’re also eighth in K-BB% and ninth in K% alone.

New York Yankees

Checking in on the Yankees, they’re cruising at the moment with a four-game winning streak and an 8-2 record over their last 10 games. Plus, they’re 12-6 on the road as well. Unsurprisingly, they deploy one of the most formidable offenses in the sport with 5.49 runs per game, second most of any team. A .749 OPS ranks third in baseball thanks to a .243/.338/.453 slash line, but that’s hardly the most impressive stat for New York. The Yankees are the only franchise with an ISO that starts with a two, coming in at an incredible .211 with an MLB-best 57 home runs. Beyond that, they’re tied for first with 38 stolen bases as well, plus an 0.59 K/BB ratio sits third among all teams. They’re not only a dominant team at the plate, though. New York leads the sport with a 2.95 staff ERA and a 1.13 WHIP also ranks second. The K-BB% of 16.3% comes in tied for the top, too. This is simply a dominant baseball team.

Tonight’s starting pitchers

The Rangers start ace RHP Jacob deGrom, who enters with a 2-1 record through six starts and 31.1 innings of work. He’s thrown to the tune of an excellent 2.01 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, striking out 40 hitters. He’s still bringing heat with his fastball while generating a whiff rate of 31.6% and K% of 32.5%, both of which are 87th percentile or better.

For the Yankees, 22-year-old RHP Elmer Rodriguez will make his second MLB start. The sample size is miniscule with just four innings to his name, allowing four hits and two earned runs with four walks and three strikeouts. He brought plenty of upside in the Minors, flashing strikeout ability and an era below 3.00 in almost every stint.

Rangers vs. Yankees pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Yankees as -122 Moneyline favorites at home tonight. The Rangers come in at +102 odds to win outright. The run total also sits at nine combined runs between these sides.

Best Bet: Under 14.5 total strikeouts thrown (-110)

The Yankees swept a series against the Rangers in Arlington back in late April, so they have to feel pretty good heading into this one. While Ben Rice’s absence certainly hurts while he deals with a bruised hand, it’s not like New York doesn’t have the firepower to win the opener on Tuesday. Yes, deGrom may prove problematic and there are questions about how Rodriguez will look, but the Bronx Bombers simply have a much better team than their opponent. One trend I’m watching tonight in particular is that the Yankees’ power hitting may pop off against Texas staff that ranks 20th in HR/9 rate. They may not even need homers to win this one so long as they can keep things close when deGrom is in, especially with an MLB-best OPS of .886 over the last two weeks. Either way, I feel quite good about taking New York on the Moneyline here.