Dan Johnson analyzes his three favorite home run props across all of today’s loaded MLB slate.
Wednesday’s home run board gets its best pulse in the late windows. Kauffman gives Ben Rice warm air and a Noah Cameron contact sheet already flashing danger. Dodger Stadium sends Freddie Freeman into the slate’s loudest pitcher matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano. PNC leaves Brandon Lowe with a playable number against a Jameson Taillon profile allowing lift and firm contact to this lineup. The three swings all carry the same shape: left-handed thump, current power indicators, and prices that still leave room for the nightly mess.
Below are my three favorite picks from the early slate of games to swat one out.
Freddie Freeman is the late-window anchor because the matchup gives a disciplined hitter a real damage runway. Tomoyuki Sugano has faced the current Dodgers for 37 plate appearances and allowed a .424 average, .542 wOBA, 94.3 mph average exit velocity, 15.9-degree launch angle, .338 expected average, .819 expected slugging and .509 expected wOBA. That is a dangerous contact mix against a Los Angeles lineup that just erupted for 15 runs and five homers, with Mookie Betts, Will Smith and Andy Pages all leaving the yard. Freeman’s surface home run total is only six, which helps keep the price alive, but his underlying power is better than that number: 91.9 mph average exit velocity, 47.7% hard-hit rate, .358 wOBA, .383 expected wOBA, 12.3% barrel rate and 36.1% sweet-spot rate. His recent form has started to match the quality of contact, too, with eight hits, two homers, five RBI, 11 runs and nine walks over his last 10 games. Ohtani and Muncy carry the shorter, obvious tickets. Freeman gives the same Sugano attack point at a better number, with a swing stable enough to punish the one mistake he is waiting for.
Ben Rice is the Yankee power piece with the best price-to-ceiling blend. He already has 16 homers, 33 RBI and an OPS near .980, and the batted-ball data makes the breakout feel sturdy: 92.3 mph average exit velocity, 51.6% hard-hit rate, .417 wOBA, .402 expected wOBA, .517 wOBA on contact, .493 expected wOBA on contact, 18.0% barrel rate and 41.4% sweet-spot rate. The recent batting average has cooled, but the power pulse remains active with eight hits, two homers, four RBI and six runs over his last 10 games, plus a three-hit night during the Yankees’ 15-1 demolition of Kansas City. Noah Cameron is the reason this stays near the top. Against the current Yankees, Cameron has allowed a .286 average, .480 wOBA, 96.4 mph average exit velocity, .305 expected average, .811 expected slugging and .486 expected wOBA across 39 plate appearances. That is premium impact contact in warm Kauffman air against a lineup that just produced 24 hits and six homers. Judge is the obvious name. Rice gives the same matchup with a longer price, a left-handed barrel card and enough lineup protection to see pitches worth driving.
Brandon Lowe is the undercard bat that belongs with the top prices because the form, swing path and opposing contact shape all line up. He enters with 13 homers, 33 RBI and a .907 OPS, and the bat has been sharp lately: 13 hits, a .342 average, one homer, two RBI and six runs over his last 10 games. His season quality-of-contact numbers are strong for this market: 89.8 mph average exit velocity, 47.1% hard-hit rate, .393 wOBA, .382 expected wOBA, .455 expected wOBA on contact, 13.8% barrel rate, 16.9-degree average launch angle and 39.1% sweet-spot rate. The distance power is real, too; one of his recent homers came off the bat at 107.1 mph and traveled 422 feet, a ball that would have left 29 of 30 parks. Jameson Taillon gives Lowe a clean opening. Against the current Pirates, Taillon has allowed a .269 average, .345 wOBA, 90.2 mph average exit velocity, 15.2-degree launch angle, .269 expected average, .454 expected slugging and .351 expected wOBA across 120 plate appearances. PNC keeps the ceiling lower than the Dodgers or Yankees spots, but Lowe’s left-handed lift makes +355 very playable.
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