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There are a whopping 13 baseball games on tonight’s loaded MLB slate.
Let’s pick out three and make a lil’ moneyline parlay on the DraftKings Sportsbook, shall we?
St. Louis has been one of this season’s most surprising teams, and a large part of its success has been the stability of Andre Pallante. The 27-year-old pitched to a 5.31 ERA in his first full-year in the Cardinals’ rotation in 2025, yet he’s managed to turn things around in 2026, maintaining a 3.76 ERA and a 3.68 FIP over 76.2 innings of work. Heck, in Pallante’s past six outings, he’s registered a pristine 2.88 ERA while holding opponents to a .270 wOBA. He’s been amazing. I can not say the same about Merrill Kelly, who will draw the start on Monday for the Diamondbacks. In fact, Kelly owns first percentile marks in both expected ERA (7.51) and opponent barrel rate (15.3%). I’m expecting crooked numbers for St. Louis’ bats, especially considering the team leads the National League in expected wOBA this month (.346).
There’s a few things you have to know to understand my lean towards the Rays tonight. First and foremost, the dark magic of Tropicana Field is alive and well, as Tampa has won an MLB-best 72.2% of its home games in 2026. Then there’s the presence of Drew Rasmussen — the most underrated starter in baseball. Since the beginning of 2022, among pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown, Rasmussen’s 2.74 ERA is the fourth-lowest mark in the league, trailing only Paul Skenes, Shohei Ohtani and Tarik Skubal. You know, just two Cy Young winners and a four-time MVP. The final piece of the puzzle? The Royals are beat up. Kansas City lost Vinnie Pasquantino (wrist) to the IL last week, and now Bobby Witt Jr. has missed the past two contests with a knee issue. Things are pretty bleak for the Royals at the moment.
My only worry with this leg of the parlay is Brandon Woodruff’s health. The 33-year-old’s been fantastic when available the past half-decade, but the problem is that that really hasn’t been all that often. Specific to 2026, Woodruff made six starts and threw 30.0 innings in March and April before going on the IL, yet again, with a shoulder issue. However, in those appearances, the RHP managed a 3.60 ERA and a 3.17 xERA. To be fair, even if Woodruff isn’t at his best, the Brewers’ lineup should be able to carry the day. In June, Milwaukee leads all teams in batting average (.295), wOBA (.373) and wRC+ (139). The club’s bats will likely tee-off on Brady Singer, who possesses a ghastly 6.15 FIP — the third-highest mark of the 120 pitchers that have tossed at least 60 innings this season.
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