In their first series of the season, the New York Mets will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in an NL East clash tonight. The Mets took the series opener with a 6-4 win on Thursday, and Freddy Peralta will face off with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound for Game 2.

The Phillies are 1.5-run favorites with -194 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mets sit as +159 underdogs, with the total set at O/U 7.5 runs.

Mets vs. Phillies prediction, preview

The New York Mets sit in last place in the NL East with a 34-41 record on the season. They are looking to ride the momentum of back-to-back wins and have picked up victories in 12 of their last 20. On the season as a whole, the Mets have gone 32-43 against the run line, and the run total is 33-35-7 to the over/under.

Freddy Peralta will get his 16th start of the season for New York. The right-handed pitcher enters with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.301 WHIP, with 75 hits allowed and 81 strikeouts tallied across his first 83.0 innings pitched. Peralta has pitched well against the Phillies in the past. The Philadelphia roster is posting slash lines of .155/.268/.393 across 84 at-bats in this matchup.

New York’s offense has left something to be desired this year. As a team, the Mets rank 25th in the MLB in hits, 25th in runs, and 20th in home runs. Juan Soto headlines the production with 17 home runs and 38 RBIs. Marcus Semien is next on the team with nine home runs, while Mark Vientos and Bo Bichette each add eight. Bichette boasts a team-high 42 RBIs and has largely rebounded from his disappointing start to his New York career.

After a nightmare 9-19 start to the season, which led the organization to fire Rob Thomson and make a shake-up at the manager position, the Phillies have done a nice job scrapping out of their self-created hole and settled in on the year. They enter tonight with a 40-35 overall record and have climbed to second place in the NL East. Philadelphia is looking to bounce back from a loss in the series opener and dropped the previous game against the Marlins as well. On the season overall, the Phillies have gone just 27-48 against the run line, and the run total is 32-39-4 to the over/under.

Cristopher Sanchez will get the start for the Phillies tonight and has been every bit the ace the team hoped he could become. The 29-year-old enters with a 1.82 ERA, a 1.091 WHIP, with 89 hits allowed and 116 strikeouts tallied across his first 99.0 innings pitched. Sanchez is coming off four earned runs allowed in his previous start against the Brewers, which was his second-worst performance of the season to this point. He has faced this Mets roster in 68 at-bats across his career, limiting them to slash lines of .221/.293/.368.

While their bats have improved their production from the horrid start to the season, it has been the offense that has let this Phillies team down. Philadelphia ranks 27th in the MLB in hits, 23rd in runs, and 11th in home runs. Kyle Schwarber leads the MLB with 25 home runs and adds 43 RBIs. Bryce Harper is second on the team with 15 home runs and 40 RBIs, while Brandon Marsh is in the midst of a career-best season in which he is batting a team-best .317 at the plate while adding nine home runs and 35 RBIs.

Mets vs. Phillies pick, best bet

Neither of these teams has lived up to the expectations of their payroll to this point, but each is trending in the right direction. It is a bit surprising that this is the first series between these two rivals at this stage of the season. But these are games that could have some significant implications on the standings at the season’s conclusion, especially given how each started the year. The Mets picked up the victory in the series opener by a score of 6-4 despite a late push by the Phillies.

In the second matchup, expect Philadelphia to get back in the win column. The Phillies are 10-5 in games that Cristopher Sanchez has started this season, and the left-hander has thrown at least six innings in 11 of these starts. He has had success against this Mets lineup in the past and has only gotten sharper this season.

While Freddy Peralta has not had a bad season by any means, the Phillies will be eager to capitalize on a right-handed opponent. They lean on a lefty-heavy lineup with players like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper especially eager to tee off. The two have four home runs in 29 combined at-bats against Peralta as well.

The Phillies have done an impressive job of climbing out of the hole created by their slow start to the season to get back in the postseason mix. Sanchez has been a vital part of this effort, so expect him to rise to the occasion once again with the added stakes of the divisional rivalry in mind. Even with Philadelphia underperforming, the Phils have put forth more convincing levels of play compared to the Mets on a consistent basis this year. Count on their lefty-dominant lineup to do some damage against Peralta and for Sanchez to keep the scoring opportunities extremely limited for the Mets. I am backing the Phillies on the -1.5 run line and expect the Phillies to even up this series in a comfortable fashion with the home crowd behind them. 

Best bet: Phillies -1.5 (+114)

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