Charlie Cummings previews Saturday’s WNBA matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces and provides his best pick.
How about a 2025 WNBA Finals rematch for our Saturday slate? It’s a real desert battle between the best of the best, and the chosen one returns. No, I’m not talking about Paul Atreides; A’ja Wilson, the absolute GOAT, takes the court on Saturday.
Tipoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. The Aces are -360 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while a Mercury upset is priced at +285. The spread in favor of Las Vegas is -8.5, and the game total is set at O/U 166.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Mercury-Aces game.
After making a surprise Finals run, the assumption was that the Mercury would continue to push the momentum and stay near the top of the mountain. But this offseason felt like a slow death of sorts. Losing the youngest member of their big three—Satou Sabally—was a serious blow. They didn’t have much of a replacement plan as she walked to the Liberty. Though they retained Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper, the margins are thinner with those two as your only stars. Keeping Monique Akoa Makani was huge, but they also lost depth in Kitija Laksa, Lexi Held, and Kalani Brown. Sure, they retained DeWanna Bonner and Sami Whitcomb, but if you combined their ages together, they’d remember the entirety of the Cold War.
So now you’re left with a top four in the rotation comprised of players who will be 32 or older during the upcoming season. They’re all talented in their own right and fit well, but this is a physically demanding league; ask the Golden State Warriors what happens when you build an unction. You’d think Mercury GM Nick U’Ren would be cognizant of that, watching his former team turn to ashes in this current NBA season.
Las Vegas had one of the strangest title seasons of all time. A lackluster first half had many wondering if the dynasty was over, and if big moves had to be made. Naturally, Vegas ripped off 16 straight wins going into the playoffs, then collected another championship. That’s what we get for prematurely ringing the death bells.
It could have been an offseason for change, but management chose to run the core back. A’ja, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Jewell Loyd all got new deals. They also retained key role players, including NaLyssa Smith, Dana Evans, and Kierstan Bell. Megan Gustafson is the only significant player to depart, effectively replaced by Chennedy Carter. Whew, talk about a gamble; Carter’s talent is hardly in doubt, but she’s made far more enemies than friends throughout her career. But, if there’s a locker room that can handle her, it’s this cohesive group of veterans.
Now we have a good idea what to expect from these teams. Who is going to come out the winner?
These teams are intimately familiar with one another. AT vs. A’ja hoops are always going to be enjoyable, and though there is a significant talent gap between the two teams, I trust the Mercury will find a way to bog this one down. Give them an attack point like Loyd, and they’ll maximize it. I’m counting on a tight, low-scoring game.
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