The Cubs and Pirates have spent two nights turning this series into a study in whiplash. Pittsburgh opened with a 12-1 beating behind 15 hits and a five-run first inning, then Chicago answered with a 10-4 win that snapped a 10-game skid and briefly changed the temperature around its offense. The finale brings the series back to the best pitcher in the building. Paul Skenes takes the ball for a 29-27 Pirates team trying to steady itself against a 30-26 Cubs club that finally found some oxygen Wednesday. Pittsburgh’s offense has already produced 16 runs in the series, and Chicago’s breakthrough makes the matchup more dangerous than the moneyline suggests. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Pirates vs. Cubs prediction, preview

Skenes enters off the strangest stretch of his season, which gives the Cubs their opening. He has allowed nine runs on 15 hits over his last 10 innings, including five runs against Philadelphia and four more on a career-high nine hits in Toronto. That is enough recent turbulence to keep this from reading like a routine favorite spot. The deeper profile still points toward an ace ready to correct course. Skenes owns a 0.82 WHIP with 65 strikeouts against nine walks, a 28.0% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate, .248 xwOBA allowed, 87.4 mph average exit velocity allowed, 34.6% hard-hit rate and 4.6% barrel rate. The command has not abandoned him, and the contact quality against him remains controlled. His first inning has been noisier than expected, but the middle frames have still looked like Skenes: power stuff, few free passes and almost no cheap traffic.

Colin Rea is the easier pitcher to attack. The Cubs right-hander comes in with a 4.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 44 strikeouts, 17 walks and eight HR allowed over 54 innings, and the contact data is even more inviting than the surface line. Rea has allowed a 91.7 mph average exit velocity, 45.6% hard-hit rate, 12.3% barrel rate, .355 xwOBA, .278 xBA and .487 xSLG, while striking out only 18.8% of hitters. His seven-pitch mix can help him survive nights without getting predictable, but the arsenal has not produced enough empty swings or soft contact. Pittsburgh’s right-handed pitching split fits that weakness. The Pirates are hitting .252/.340/.402 with a .742 OPS against righties, with 45 HR, 60 doubles, 159 walks and 110 extra-base hits.

The Pirates also have enough individual matchup wins to stretch Rea beyond one danger bat. Oneil Cruz is the loudest piece, bringing a 96.4 mph average exit velocity, 62.2% hard-hit rate, 16.5% barrel rate, .346 wOBA and .340 xwOBA into a matchup with a starter giving up too much airborne damage. Rea’s fastball/sinker/cutter family gives Cruz the kind of firm contact window that can turn one swing into a two-run inning. Brandon Lowe has 14 HR and 36 RBI, homered in Wednesday’s loss and has been a steady source of left-handed damage in this series. Bryan Reynolds had three hits Wednesday and gives Pittsburgh switch-hit stability in the middle. Nick Gonzales brings a .297 average, Spencer Horwitz adds on-base skill, and Marcell Ozuna gives the lineup another mistake-punisher behind Cruz. This is not a Pirates offense built only on one blast; it has enough contact, patience and thump to keep pressure on Rea through the first two trips.

Cubs vs. Pirates pick, best bet

Chicago’s countercase deserves respect after Wednesday. The Cubs scored 10 runs on 14 hits, drew seven walks, got five RBI from Ian Happ and added a Michael Conforto homer off the bench. Michael Busch is the left-handed bat to watch against Skenes with a 13.1% barrel rate, .339 wOBA and .353 xwOBA. Pete Crow-Armstrong can change the game with speed and hard contact, while Alex Bregman gives the lineup its cleanest bat-to-ball presence. That said, Wednesday’s outburst came after the Cubs had scored only 14 runs over their previous eight games. Recent righty-split form still has holes: Happ’s homer snapped a brutal stretch, Conforto’s power has come with little batting-average support, and Chicago’s lineup has to beat Skenes through contact because his walk rate rarely supplies free innings. That keeps the Cubs’ team total and the full-game over behind the Pittsburgh side.

The market has Pittsburgh priced correctly as the better team, but the moneyline is heavy at -175. The team total over 4.5 is tempting against Rea, though a 4-2 Pirates win would be a strong Skenes game and still leave that ticket short. The first-five run line catches the cleanest starter gap, but it asks Pittsburgh to create immediate separation even with Skenes’ first-inning volatility. The full-game run line offers the better shape. It gets plus money behind the better starter, the more attackable opposing arm and a Pirates lineup with the right righty-split profile to build a multi-run cushion. Best bet: Pirates -1.5 (+128). Playable to +115.

Final score: Pirates 5, Cubs 2.

Best bet: Pirates -1.5 (+130) vs. Cubs

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