Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Sunday’s FIFA World Cup match between Belgium and Iran.
Through one day of matches, Group G is any team’s to win or lose. Belgium drew with Egypt and Iran drew with New Zealand on the opening day, leaving all four teams knotted on one point apiece. Belgium and Iran looked the strongest of the teams overall, so their 3 p.m. ET (12 p.m. local) match at Los Angeles Stadium on Sunday could end up deciding the group.
If either team secures all three points, it would be all-but-assured to advance, regardless of what happens in the New Zealand-Egypt match.
The Red Devils are -225 favorites to claim all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Team Melli are +650. There are +360 odds that the teams will share the spoils.
Below, I’ll break down this critical showdown and provide my favorite bet.
On Matchday 1, both teams drew against weaker opponents, and Iran effectively wasted home-field advantage in Los Angeles, which has the largest concentration of Iranians outside the country. Given each country’s pedigree and expectations, Belgium’s performance was probably more disappointing; after all, the Red Devils finished third in the tournament in 2018. While Team Melli controlled most of the momentum during the second half against New Zealand, Belgium and the Pharaohs played out a pretty back-and-forth affair. Both teams could’ve felt they deserved all three points, but especially late on, Iran came closer to making it happen. They had a goal ruled out for offsides that would’ve given them the group lead right before the end of the first half.
The Red Devils still have some big names on their roster. Kevin De Bruyne had a decent, even if injury-riddled, season for Napoli, and his club teammate Romelu Lukaku made a big impact after coming on, helping create the equalizing own goal. Additionally, Jeremy Doku is a regular starter for Manchester City and operates with terrifying pace, and he’s bound to do better than his performance against Egypt (one off-target shot). Belgium left plenty of opportunities on the table, putting only three of its 15 shots on target and getting unlucky to hit the post once, but its shots were merely of average quality, with only nine coming from within the box. The Red Devils weren’t perfect in defense; while Thibaut Courtois couldn’t have been reasonably expected to stop Emam Ashour’s rocket, they allowed 71.43% of the Pharaohs’ shots to come from within the box and won fewer than half of their ground duels. They also allowed among the most touches in the box and committed among the most fouls. Maxim De Cuyper and Timothy Castagne, their top two left-backs, are both on yellow cards, so they’ll have to be careful to ward off a suspension. Belgium should still be expected to win, especially with the still-elite Courtois in between the sticks, but it’ll have to play more cleanly.
Team Melli started slowly, giving up a wonderful goal to New Zealand’s Elijah Just in just the seventh minute, but they were the better team for most of the evening. Iran had an impressively well-rounded attack, as it was defender Ramin Rezaeian who won Man of the Match honors by scoring the opener and later assisting Mohammad Mohebi’s equalizer. Team Melli still has Medhi Taremi, who still smashes home goals for fun in the Greek Super League, and despite a quiet effort on Taremi’s part against the All Whites, he automatically gives Iran a threat at goal whenever he’s on the pitch. It managed 1.50 expected goals and can reasonably expect to get more than four of their 17 shots on target on Sunday. Team Melli definitely could’ve done better with their distribution, as they completed passes at among the lowest rates, but it wasn’t a bad attacking performance overall. Iran didn’t do a bad job defensively, either, allowing 1.24 expected goals and winning a majority of both its ground and aerial duels, though like Belgium, it allowed too many shots in the box. It did force a lot of high turnovers, but it didn’t capitalize on those opportunities, turning just one into a shot. Team Melli will have to be more opportunistic if they want to pull off the upset.
The Red Devils should win this match because they press at among the highest rates, and Team Melli’s distribution was sloppy. Belgium also has a pretty aggressive attacking approach, sending its passes forward at an above-average rate, and New Zealand’s most dangerous chances came in transition. Furthermore, Iran’s crosses might not be as effective, given that the Red Devils have the fourth-tallest roster in the competition. Team Melli’s cohesion in the defense and the pro-Iran crowd should keep them in the match, but in the end, Belgium presents a bad matchup. The Red Devils should score once on either side of halftime to secure the critical three points.
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