Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Thursday’s MLB game between the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers.
Both the Astros (39-43) and Tigers (34-46) entered 2026 with postseason expectations. So far, it’s safe to say these clubs have fallen well short of the mark. Still, the uninspiring American League means almost everyone remains in postseason contention. Will either team pick up a much-needed win this evening?
The Tigers are favorites (-114) over the Astros, with the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Houston and Detroit on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The biggest reason behind Houston’s struggles has been on the mound. That includes prized offseason acquisition Tatsuya Imai. The Japanese hurler has battled inconsistent performance and injuries all season. Through ten starts (41.0 IP), he’s recorded a 6.15 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 48 strikeouts (10.5 K/9). Other than a terrific 32.0% whiff rate and 26.5% strikeout rate, the rookie hasn’t shown much promise. However, Imai has held his opponents to three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five appearances. He’s also been slightly better pitching away from hitter-friendly Daikin Park.
It’s not as if the Tigers offer much of a challenge at the plate. Their 4.05 runs per game at home are the fifth-worst mark in baseball this season. To make matters worse, the team is 24th in batting average (.235) and 20th in wOBA (.313). The absence of Gleyber Torres (oblique) also hurts Detroit’s lineup depth. Imai relies heavily on his slider, which he’s thrown on 44% of pitches this season. Against that offering, Tigers batters are slashing .215/.274/.373. Detroit has a .712 OPS when facing right-handed pitching. That’s tied for the eighth-lowest mark in the majors this season.
Toeing the slab for the home team will be Troy Melton, making his sixth start of the season. All things considered, it’s been a terrific campaign for the second-year pro. Over 31.2 innings of work, he’s put up a 2.56 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 19 strikeouts (5.4 K/9). Is a low-K approach sustainable long term? Maybe not, but the 25-year-old has already shown he can be a decent contributor at the professional level. Besides, he sits at the 60th percentile or better in fastball velocity (95.6 MPH), walk rate (7.2%), barrel rate (6.3%) and hard-hit rate (36.8%). During his most recent outing, Melton held a potent White Sox offense to one run over six innings.
Make no mistake: the Astros can swing a bat with the best of ’em. However, this group has cooled off following a red-hot month of April. Since May 1st, they’re just 25th in baseball with 4.04 runs per game. Yordan Alvarez remains a problem for opposing hurlers. The Cuban slugger has recorded an MLB-best .435 OBP, .634 SLG and 194 OPS+. To boot, he’s leading the American League with 25 home runs. However, Alvarez hasn’t gotten much support from the rest of his teammates. Six Houston players with at least 100 plate appearances have a wRC+ below 100. Despite hammering a ton of homers, this crew doesn’t generate much traffic either. The Astros are 18th in batting average (.243) and 29th in stolen bases (27). Even if Melton surrenders a deep fly or two, his pitch count should stay under control.
Imai is a better pitcher than he’s shown this season, but it might not matter on Thursday. Houston’s offense is a paper tiger (no pun intended), propped up all season by one big bat. If Detroit keeps Alvarez from going yard, the rest of this lineup shouldn’t pose much of a problem. Given the way Melton is throwing right now, the Tigers have the edge tonight.
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