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Major League Baseball has a jam-packed Friday night under the lights with all 30 teams starting their games at 6:00 p.m. ET or later. It should be a great start to the weekend, especially if we can find a few home run props to hit. Overall, the weather looks fairly clear, and even though Sutter Health Park and Coors Field aren’t on the slate, there are a few great spots to attack.
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday: Elly De La Cruz, Jose Ramirez and Michael Harris II.
It’s been a rough week for the Reds with a mop in Chicago (four-game sweep) extending their losing streak to seven. They’ll come home for this weekend’s series against Houston, and De La Cruz will look to help them get back on track.
De La Cruz already has 10 homers this season in 38 games while hitting .265 with a .370 wOBA and .245 ISO. The power production is a significant improvement from last year’s .333 wOBA and .176 ISO. De La Cruz has four of those blasts in his last 15 games with a 19.0% barrel rate. On the season, his barrel rate is up to 16.3% with a 50% hard hit rate.
The switch-hitter has hit seven of his 10 homers at home, where he has a .443 wOBA and .333 ISO in 18 games. He’ll look to continue his strong play at Great American Ball Park against Astros’ starter Mike Burrows, who has allowed eight homers in his seven games, including four in his 17 1/3 innings on the road, where he has a 6.23 ERA and a .360 average against him. He has allowed lefties to hit .341 with six of those eight homers, so De La Cruz will be on the right side of those splits as he hits from the left-hand side on Friday night.
Like the Reds, the Guardians are coming home after a four-game road set against a divisional rival, but they earned a split in Kansas City. They’ll host the Twins this weekend, starting with a fun matchup of promising young lefties as Parker Messick takes on Connor Prielipp. Prielipp is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in his first three MLB starts, but he has given up two home runs, both to right-handed hitters, who also have a pair of doubles against him.
The switch-hitting Jose Ramirez will face him from the right side, where he is hitting .282 this season with four of his six homers. He only has 45 of his 170 plate appearances (26.4%) as a righty, but has a .423 wOBA and .359 ISO in the split. He has also hit half of his homers at home in only 41% of his games.
Ramirez hasn’t homered in 16 games, which is why his odds have crept up over +400, but he’s on the strong side of all the splits and has a solid 41.1% hard hit rate over his last 20 games. There doesn’t seem to be anything majorly wrong with his swing, and I like his chances to start turning it around against the Twins this Friday.
In one of the best games of the night, the Dodgers host the Braves, and the environment in Dodger Stadium should be ideal for home runs with the wind blowing out and warm game-time temperatures. The Dodgers will start the series by giving the ball to Emmet Sheehan, who is 2-1 in his first six games this season with a 5.23 ERA and 4.30 FIP. He has served up six homers in those six starts with a 1.32 WHIP and 9.3% barrel rate against him. Lefties have hit all six of the homers against Sheehan, and they have a .288 average, .417 wOBA and .644 slugging percentage against him on the season.
The Braves have several strong lefty options on the board, and Harris has a history of stepping up on the big stage. He’s been playing through injuries for much of the season, but has seven homers in his 35 games while hitting .295 with a .366 wOBA, both of which would be his best marks since his rookie year in 2022. He has a 57.4% hard hit rate and 18.1% barrel rate, which would also be career-highs, and he has a .643 xSLG that ranks in the top one percent of qualified hitters.
Harris has five homers in his last 18 games (13 starts) and is hitting .377 with a .477 wOBA and .340 ISO over that stretch. He’s a strong option to play this Friday night in L.A. in a great showcase matchup.
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