Keagan Smith breaks down the upcoming first-round NBA Playoffs series between the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets.
The NBA Playoffs are here! As teams prepare to square off across the league, we’re diving deep into the numbers to find the best betting value across DraftKings Sportsbook’s markets for the postseason.
The Los Angeles Lakers hit their stride over the home stretch of the regular season to earn the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference, but the situation took a major turn for the worse when Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves suffered injuries in the final weeks. With each likely out of commission for some, or all, of this series, the No. 5 Houston Rockets have a much easier path to advancing to the conference semis ahead of them. There are no nights off though, especially not in #ThisLeague.
Let the fun begin. Here’s a series preview, prediction and pick for Lakers vs. Rockets in the opening round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs.
The Lakers did plenty right down the stretch of the season, finally catching fire to go 17-5 between the All-Star break and April 1, finishing at 53-29. They cracked the top seven in NETRTG and were surging over that span, but disaster struck when Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves both suffered injuries that’ll leave them sidelined heading into the postseason. After going 3-3 to end the season without them, the postseason outlook appears dire. That tends to happen when you lose one of the best offensive engines in the NBA who leads the league in scoring.
Los Angeles averages 116.3 PPG this season at ninth in OFFRTG, but that mark has dropped slightly to 114.4 PPG without Doncic in the lineup over an 18-game sample. Reaves was available for most of those, so of course, the attack will take a further hit. As such it’s best to take offensive numbers with a grain of salt in their absence. The Lakers do have the NBA’s best FG% at 59.5% and an average 3P% at 35.9%. It’ll largely be up to LeBron James to carry the load now in the primary role after posting 20.9 points and 7.2 assists a night, but whether the 41-year-old can assume a role resembling his prime self feels like a semi-shaky proposition. An opposing defense can also place significantly more pressure on him without superstars surrounding him. Deandre Ayton (12.5 PPG, 8.0 REB) must step up in a big way with additional responsibilities, while Rui Hachimura (11.5 PPG) could take on a featured role in the offensive pecking order.
This ragtag bunch won’t have an easy time on defense. The Lakers already rank 19th in DEFRTG and aren’t always the most reliable, but they are 12th in REB%. While Doncic is something of a net negative on that side of the ball, his ability on the glass stands out. Paint protection could be another issue as well, sitting 19th in opponent points in the paint allowed to begin with while allowing an overall eFG% of 55.5%. Los Angeles is also 14th in opponent turnovers per game.
The Rockets, meanwhile, looked like a good team but not quite a contender up until the last few weeks. In a campaign that saw them add Kevin Durant to an exciting young core over the summer, expectations were and are high in Houston. The season-ending injury suffered by lead guard Fred VanVleet (before playing a game in 2025-26) and one suffered by Steven Adams later on put a damper on those title hopes, though. However, they won nine of their last 10 following perhaps the most embarrassing loss of the season back on March 25 and finished just shy of Los Angeles in the standings at 52-30.
The offense is shaky sometimes, but the Rockets do bring 115.2 PPG and are eighth in OFFRTG overall this season. The absence of a true floor general has held them back to an extent, but after blowing a 13-point lead in overtime, the offensive approach shifted to bring in greater ball movement and better shot selection. Over those last 10 matchups, this team jumped to fifth in scoring at 123.6 PPG, second in OFFRTG, and fifth in AST/TO ratio. Houston ranks 10th in FG% at 47.9% and falls at the same spot in 3P% at 36.4%. Durant’s 26.0 PPG are a team best on elite shooting splits, also tacking on 5.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists a night. Alperen Sengun brings 20.4 points with a team-best 8.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists, shaking off a cold stretch with excellent play to end the regular season. Amen Thompson also provides all-around production with 18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game. The Rockets have another three double-digit scorers too, headlined by Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason.
Notice rebounding outputs from the top names — crashing the glass is a lifestyle for this group. Houston ranks first in overall REB% as well as OREB%, leading the latter stat by three percentage points. The Rockets are stout in this regard but the defense is the team’s true strength, allowing the fourth-fewest opponent PPG at 110.0 while falling sixth in DEFRTG and opponent eFG% (53.0%). They’re also third in blocks per game.
The Lakers’ injuries are simply too debilitating to ignore. While LeBron can carry them to a win, doing so four times to advance will be borderline impossible unless he can transform into his vintage self against an elite defense. There’s a reason the Rockets are -600 favorites to win the series, after all. However, there’s essentially no value in that line, so instead we’ll look towards the correct score market.
Houston has far superior star-level talent in comparison to Los Angeles. Durant is an alpha scorer, Sengun is an offensive hub and fellow All-Star, and Thompson brings All-Defense pedigree with some upside as a creator of his own. It’s essentially three-on-one in terms of the top names in the series, and while James is a GOAT, having Ayton and Hachimura as your costars doesn’t feel great. The surrounding talent the Rockets deploy is also much better than that of the Lakers, and with benches thinned, the depth matters slightly less in this context. Houston should roll, even if L.A. steals a game.
This is a longer-shot pick, but I love the value bettors can snag in this series player prop market. The Rockets have plenty of borderline-elite rebounders and the Lakers have a couple of guys who can really elevate in that area of the game, but Thompson jumps out from the rest thanks to his freakish athleticism. In the postseason last year, he pulled down 7.8 boards a night over the course of seven games. We’ve seen him take over on the glass at times throughout his career too, notching 19 games of double-digit rebounds this season and 43 total games of 10+ boards in 148 appearances over the last two seasons. If he locks in for the playoffs, the young star can dominate in this area.
Game 1 of the Lakers vs. Rockets series will take place on Saturday, April 18th at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Game 1 will be held at Crytpo.com Arena in Los Angeles, as the Lakers hold home-court advantage in the series.
This is a best-ff-seven series between the Lakers and Rockets. The first team to win four games will move on to the Western Conference Semifinals.
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