Charlie Cummings breaks down the upcoming first-round NBA Playoffs series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Toronto Raptors.
The 2026 NBA playoffs are chock-full of storylines, and this Cavaliers-Raptors series is no different. Can Cleveland pick itself up after some disappointing playoff runs and finally make noise? Or will an ascendant Toronto team pull the upset and set itself up as the next surprise playoff squad?
The Cavaliers are -550 to win the series, while the Raptors are +400 underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This has all the signs of “one last run.” It’s year four of the Donovan Mitchell era for the Cavaliers; they finished fourth in the conference twice, before truly taking a leap last year with 64 wins and the top seed in the conference. But, once again, they were knocked out in five games during the second round by the eventual Eastern Conference champions. If they get another disappointing result this season, general manager Koby Altman may be forced to ask some difficult questions in the offseason.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This is a very strong Cavaliers team playing its best, healthiest basketball heading into the postseason. Since the blockbuster James Harden acquisition, Cleveland is 22-9, going from a fringe home court team to a firm contender out East. With its core four players on the floor – Mitchell, Harden, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen – Cleveland posted a 96.5 defensive rating and a whopping +23.6 net rating. They won all four of the Four Factors in those lineups: eFG%, turnover rate, offensive rebounding rate, and foul rate. And that’s before we get to their depth.
One big question is how head coach Kenny Atkinson chooses to close out games with those four. Cleveland certainly has options, and it may depend on the matchup and the flow of the game. Do you lean on Sam Merrill for maximum shooting? Max Strus for size and shooting? Dean Wade for size and defense? Jaylon Tyson for a bit of extra on-ball creation? Keon Ellis for a point-of-attack defensive monster? All of these are good answers, and whoever isn’t playing will be excellent for their bench units led by Dennis Schröder. This is a deep team with the high-end talent to go far; they just need to get that playoff monkey off their back.
Finally, the long rebuild ends. Since Kawhi Leonard helped deliver Toronto’s first title in franchise history during the 2018-19 season, turmoil has been the operating word up north. The Raps have since won a single playoff series, making the playoffs just twice in the six seasons following that title. Questionable management and coaching decisions led to the departures of Nick Nurse and Masai Ujiri, followed by a full roster rebuild. Now they’ve paired some shrewd trades with good draft picks to build a winner in Toronto once again.
But there are a lot more questions about this team than answers. Scottie Barnes has established himself as a perennial All-Star and All-NBA candidate, but can he hold up in a playoff setting where elite teams are game-planning for his weaknesses? Brandon Ingram puts up big counting stats, but the Raptors are nine (!!!) points per 100 possessions better when he’s off the floor. Will his defensive lapses and lack of ball movement break this team, and if so, does head coach Darko Rajakovic have the guts to bench him?
The strength of this team is unquestionably the depth. The starting lineup is solid, but it’s the guys like Jamal Shead, Collin Murray-Boyles, Sandro Mamukelashvili and Ja’Kobe Walter who make them tick. They bring tons of defense, hustle, and lineup versatility to pressure Cleveland. It’s not enough to close the gap between the starting lineups, but it gives them an ability to mix and match based on coverages and pressure points that the coaching staff identifies.
Now we know these teams a bit better. What is the best way to bet this series?
Exact series score gives you a bit of a boost, but picking between 4-1 and the sweep is tough. Instead, I’ll split the difference and take the plus value on Cleveland handling this series before it heads back to Toronto. I’m a believer in the Cavs starting group and in Kenny Atkinson as the kind of coach who can press the right buttons when needed. Don’t get lost in James Harden/Donovan Mitchell playoff narratives just yet; this team will look like world-beaters in the first round.
Another way to get value on the Cavs is by hitting the three-game line. I fully expect Cleveland to take control of this series from the jump; James Harden and Donovan Mitchell are often at their best early in the series, before game plan adjustments can be made. The Cavs will head back to Toronto after taking care of business at home and put the beat down on them in Game 3 to all but end this series. Don’t be surprised to see a sad atmosphere for Game 4 in the Six.
Game 1 of the Cavaliers vs. Raptors series will take place on Saturday, April 18 at 1 p.m. ET.
Game 1 will be held at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, as the Cavaliers hold the home-court advantage in the series.
This is a Best-of-Seven series between the Cavaliers and Raptors. The first team to win four games will move on to the Eastern Conference semifinals.
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