American League action is on deck for MLB’s Thursday night slate, as the Cleveland Guardians kick off a three-game series with the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field. 

The Orioles (9–9, 3rd AL East) hit the road after splitting a six-game homestand, most recently losing Wednesday’s rubber match against the Diamondbacks in extras. The Guardians (10–9, 2nd AL Central) return home following a 2–4 road trip, capped by a series-deciding loss to the Cardinals on Wednesday.

Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got Baltimore right-hander Shane Baz taking on Cleveland southpaw Parker Messick.

First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. The Guardians enter as a 1.5-run home favorite with -126 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Orioles sit as a +104 underdog, with the game total set at O/U eight runs.

Orioles vs. Guardians Preview

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles were quick to retool after a lost 2025 — a stunning setback for what had been one of baseball’s most promising young lineups. And while the club appears to be getting back on course, there’s still room to grow for this reshaped roster. 

Baltimore currently boasts a top-five offense in terms of wRC+, fueled by the hot bats of Gunnar Henderson, Jeremiah Jackson, and Taylor Ward. But the underlying metrics tell a different story: the O’s rank just 17th in xwOBA and remain light on power, still awaiting a spark from star slugger Pete Alonso. 

The Orioles’ pitching staff has also hovered around the middle of the pack, with their rotation hindered by some heavy batted-ball luck. They’ll look to turn the tables with newly acquired right-hander Shane Baz on the bump. 

The former Rays starter has posted a 4.50 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP across his first three starts in Baltimore, and his under-the-hood metrics don’t forecast a turnaround. Still, the organization has high hopes for the 26-year-old flamethrower, as evidenced by his five-year, $68 million contract extension — the most lucrative deal ever given to an Orioles pitcher.

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians are off to another solid start by AL Central standards — though they seemingly have room to reach a higher offensive ceiling.

Surging young outfielders Chase DeLauter and Angel Martinez have injected new life into Cleveland’s attack, keeping the club above water while the rest of the order finds its rhythm. It likely won’t be long before Jose Ramirez returns to form; the six-time Silver Slugger currently ranks in MLB’s 80th percentile in xwOBA (.376) and xSLG (.503). Meanwhile, Steven Kwan remains one of the toughest outs in baseball.

Cleveland’s pitching staff, like Baltimore’s, has hovered around league average early on. It certainly hasn’t helped that its bullpen ranks dead-last in ground-ball rate, constantly undone by the long ball.

On Thursday, the Guardians will look for length from top-five prospect Parker Messick, who has supplied just that in an impressive start to his career. The 25-year-old southpaw owns a 2.04 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 10 starts since getting called up last August; those numbers shrivel to a 0.51 ERA (2.92 xERA) and 0.91 WHIP through three turns in 2026. Messick has been in full control of his impressive arsenal, flashing an elite chase rate while dancing around hard contact.

Orioles vs. Guardians Pick, Best Bet

Thursday’s matchup between the Orioles and Guardians is underscored by offensive potential, particularly from their respective stars. Even without much from Alonso, Baltimore has been especially tough on lefties this season. On the other side, Cleveland has remained a potent offense while waiting on the all-but-inevitable breakout from Ramirez. Expect fireworks from Progressive Field. 

Best Bet: Over 8 Runs (-112)