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MLB Rivalry Weekend kicks off with a three-game set out on the West Coast as the battle for Los Angeles begins tonight. The Dodgers are visiting the Angels for what could be a very lopsided matchup, but with the reigning champs still in a funk, anything can happen on the diamond.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for Friday’s Dodgers vs. Angels matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
At 26-18, the Dodgers are actually the worst of the three NL division leaders by virtue of raw record right now. Even at 5-5 over their last 10 games, there’s little reason to pick against the back-to-back World Series champs. They’re averaging 4.93 runs per game this season and have a .775 OPS that ranks second in the MLB, slashing .263/.342/.433 overall with a .304 BABIP. Those are some standout stats, made even more impressive when you consider that Mookie Betts has missed time and has a .659 OPS while Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker and Shohei Ohtani have an OPS below .800. The club’s .169 ISO is good for third, as are their 58 home runs. Coupled with an 0.49 BB/K ratio that ranks fifth, this is a great offense that’s yet to even find its ceiling. The pitchers are also performing with a 3.36 ERA and 1.12 WHIP that are good for fourth and first among all teams, also sitting second in K-BB% (16.8%). In narrowing those numbers down to relievers alone, the Dodgers are ninth in ERA (3.52) with a 1.20 WHIP.
The starter tonight is RHP Will Klein, who makes the first start of his career after tossing 16.1 innings in 12 games this year. He has a 2.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 17 punchouts, bringing excellent fastball velocity at 97.7 mph while limiting barrels at an elite rate.
The Angels are always the little brother of the Los Angeles clubs, and that’s no exception this season. They’re only 16-28 at last in the AL West, also going 3-7 over their last 10 contests with a three-game losing streak to boot. They’re scoring 4.16 runs per game despite some solid numbers at the plate on the slash line. The OPS of .705 comes in at 17th off a line of .232/.319/.386, also producing a .289 BABIP that sits 13th. A .154 ISO is nothing to scoff at, nor are 52 home runs, tied for seventh most of any team. However, the Angels have a BB/K ratio of 0.38 and lead the MLB in K% at 25.8%, the opposite of what you want to see in terms of plate process. Outside of Jose Soriano, the pitching staff is where the larger problems are. The Angels have a 4.60 ERA and 1.43 WHIP as a team, and the bullpen is even worse — the relievers have a 5.27 ERA (third worst) and 1.52 WHIP (fourth worst) while bringing the fourth-highest BB% at 12.6%.
25-year-old RHP Jack Kochanowicz starts for the Angels this evening with a 2-2 record across his eight appearances. He brings a 3.97 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 30 strikeouts across 45.1 IP, ranking in the 97th percentile in ground ball rate.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Dodgers as -193 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight. The Angels come in at +158 odds to win outright. The run total also sits at a whopping 9.5 combined runs between these sides.
Even with the Dodgers and some of their stars underperforming, they’re still in a different stratosphere than tonight’s opponent. They’re a far better team with way more offensive firepower which should be able to take advantage of the Angels’ poor bullpen. The Dodgers are also the hotter team so far this month with a .708 OPS to a paltry .633 for the Angels, so I like the recent form factor as well. This one may not be particularly close, to be entirely honest, especially with the Dodgers’ own relievers at a 2.74 ERA in the month of May. Klein’s play in a start is a question mark, but the guys behind him should pick up the slack if there are any issues.
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