Griffin Wong preps you for Game 5 between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Detroit Pistons with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.
At some point in the next four days, a long drought will come to an end. If the Cleveland Cavaliers end up winning two out of the next three games, Donovan Mitchell will advance to the conference finals for the first time in his nine-season NBA career. If the Detroit Pistons end up winning the series, they’ll make the conference finals for the first time since 2008.
The series is tied 2-2, so Game 5 — which begins tonight at 8:10 p.m. in Detroit — is pivotal for both teams. The winner of Game 5 in 2-2 series has historically gone on to advance 81.5% of the time, so tonight could effectively be the series decider. Whichever team ultimately claims the series will go on to face the New York Knicks, who swept the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Pistons are 4.5-point favorites for tonight’s contest at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 212.5. The Spurs are -410 on the Moneyline, and Minnesota is +320.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the must-win game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two UTIL picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (MIN @ SAS).
Donovan Mitchell ($16,200 CP) – At the end of the first half on Monday, it seemed like the Cavaliers’ season was about to come to an end. They trailed 2-1 in the series and 56-52 at halftime, and Mitchell had just four points. But in the second half, Mitchell turned it around, tying a playoff record with 39 points on 12-for-18 shooting (three-for-seven from beyond the arc). He hasn’t had the most efficient series, shooting just 30.8% from beyond the arc, but his usage and his ability to get to the charity stripe mean his scoring should be high. Mitchell ranks seventh in career playoff points per game.
To be fair, even though Detroit has had a disappointing playoff run relative to the standard it set in the regular season, it has still had a good defense, posting the league’s third-best defensive rating so far. The Pistons’ primary defender, Ausar Thompson ($11,100 CP), has actually done an excellent job guarding him, holding him to just two-for-11 shooting, but Mitchell has effectively manufactured switches onto Cade Cunningham ($18,600 CP), torching him for 21 points on nine-for-18 shooting across 45.3 partial possessions and tiring him out. Detroit also likes to force floaters or short jumpers (shots between six and 10 feet from the basket), and while that’s an inefficient shot for most players, Mitchell has been the fifth-most accurate among the 32 playoff players to attempt at least two such shots per game.
Tobias Harris ($13,500 CP) – The Pistons’ other All-Star, Jalen Duren ($12,600), has had a miserable playoff run, so Harris has actually been their second-best player throughout these playoffs. The veteran has scored at least 20 points in eight of his last nine games, and he’s been pretty efficient these playoffs overall (46-33-82 shooting splits) while also contributing 7.7 rebounds per game. He’s historically been a playoff riser on the glass, averaging 2.0 more boards per game throughout the playoffs than the regular season, and since rebounds are worth 1.25 FPTS, that’s a critical skill. Harris averaged 28.0 FPTS per game during the regular season and has topped that mark in all but one of his playoff games.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is just unconvincing defensively. It had just the league’s 18th-ranked defense across the final 30 games of the regular season, after trading for James Harden ($15,000 CP), and it’s been the sixth-worst of the 16 playoff teams (the worst of the teams not already eliminated). In particular, the Cavaliers have allowed the third-most shots within five feet so far these playoffs, and Harris — while not an elite finisher — has gotten to the rack with some regularity. Cleveland has also guarded him predominantly with Harden, whose defensive effort can wax and wane. Harris is also three inches taller than Harden, which could help him generate easier shots and crash the glass.
Evan Mobley ($9,600) – Mobley, derisively referred to in some NBA social media circles as “18 and 8”, produced…well…17 points and eight rebounds in Game 4 after recording 13 points and eight rebounds in Game 3. Still, he represents solid value for his work on the defensive side of the ball, as he recorded five blocks and three steals in Game 4 to increase his total output to 49.5 FPTS. It was only his second-best fantasy performance of these playoffs, as he had 26 points and 14 boards (51.5 FPTS) in Game 6 against the Toronto Raptors, so he’s capable of turning it on as a scorer when he needs to.
Detroit has a high ceiling on both sides of the ball, but it is pretty mistake-prone. So far these playoffs, the Pistons rank fourth-to-last in both opponent steals and opponent blocks per game, in part because they attempt a lot of shots near the rim and turn the ball over frequently. Additionally, because Detroit ranks second-to-last in effective field goal percentage among teams that haven’t yet been eliminated, there could be plenty of rebound chances. Mobley has seen a slight jump in his deflections per game relative to the regular season, and he’s historically been more aggressive with his contests in the playoffs than the regular season. Plus, the Pistons have guarded him predominantly with Harris, who ranks in just the 30th percentile in shot contests per 100 possessions.
Duncan Robinson ($6,000) – Robinson is questionable for tonight’s game with back soreness, but prior to a slow performance in Game 4 (four points, four fouls, 6.75 FPTS), he’d had an impressive prior five games, averaging 15.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.6 steals (30.95 FPTS) per game on 47-47-33 shooting splits. In that stretch, he topped his season average of 21.6 FPTS per game in all five games. He’s historically performed well in the playoffs, as he’s perhaps most famous for his 44.2% three-point percentage in the Miami Heat’s run to the NBA Finals in 2023.
For Detroit, shooting is paramount if it wants to beat the Cavaliers. Despite allowing a lot of shots at the rim so far these playoffs, Cleveland has done a pretty good job contesting them, holding opponents to the seventh-lowest field goal percentage on such shots. So with the Cavaliers capable of shutting down the Pistons’ Plan A, Plan B is jump-shooting, and Detroit’s 42.2% three-point shooting (on low volume) has been just good enough to take a pair of wins. Cleveland has mostly guarded Robinson with Mitchell, who, in addition to being a merely average defender, is the Cavaliers’ offense, so the Pistons have incentive to set Robinson up for shots.
Jalen Duren ($8,400) – There’s been plenty of discourse about Duren’s poor form these playoffs, but for a guy who averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds (36.6 FPTS) per game on 65.4% shooting during the regular season and will likely make an All-NBA team, 10.2 points and 8.5 boards on 49.4% accuracy is atrocious. He’s only topped his regular season average in one of his 11 postseason games, when he had 15 points and 15 rebounds (40.75 FPTS) in Game 7 against the Orlando Magic, and he’s had 21 or fewer FPTS five times. Cleveland is just a terrible matchup for him; not only does it start a pair of bigs in Mobley and Jarrett Allen ($7,000) who are effective in shutting down the paint, it’s also been an above-average rebounding team in both the regular season and the playoffs, and it draws lots of fouls.
As tentative as I am to back Harden in a must-win playoff game, given his poor historical track record, the Cavaliers’ ability to shut down Detroit’s second-best offensive weapon (Duren) should be a formula for long-term success. Without being as effective on the interior, the Pistons need to rely on their shooting, and 42.2% from deep (51.3% on wide-open threes) just isn’t a sustainable formula for a team that finished just 17th in three-point percentage during the regular season. Harris and Robinson are due for off games.
Of course, Detroit protected its home court in Games 1 and 2, and during the regular season, it was 4.9 points per 100 possessions better at home than on the road. It’s also worth noting that the Cavaliers have won every home game and lost every road game so far these playoffs.
Those sample sizes are small, though, and Cleveland can absolutely win in hostile territory. The Cavaliers won the teams’ only regular season game at Little Caesars Arena by 21 points despite the Pistons actually making more threes on a higher percentage. Neither of these teams has been very convincing this postseason, but Mitchell’s and Harden’s experience should take over.
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