Blake Krass gives his pick, prediction and best bet for the French Open quarter-final match between Jakub Mensik and Joao Fonseca.
The French Open quarter-finals are underway. One of the most exciting matches of this round sees two players looking for their first major title. Joao Fonseca has already made his mark on this tournament by upsetting Novak Djokovic in one of the great matches in recent memory. At just 19 years old, Fonseca seems destined to be a future star of this sport. However, 20-year-old Jakub Mensik is flying under the radar as a rising star in his own right. One of these players will make their first-ever major semi-final this week.
Here is my pick, prediction and best bet on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s quarter-final match between Joao Fonseca and Jakub Mensik.
The tennis world has gotten a grand introduction to Joao Fonseca over the past few days. Fonseca made headlines by taking down Novak Djokovic in a five-set thriller earlier in this tournament. He has managed to ride that momentum to the quarter-finals, where he is now favored to make his first-ever major semi-final. However, for those who have been paying attention, this is not a fluke to see Fonseca advancing this far at a Grand Slam. He won his first ATP title at just 18 years old last year, shortly after turning professional. He added a second ATP title later in 2025.
So far in 2026, he has shown his quality at the highest level. He went on a run of four straight tournaments, from Indian Wells through the BMW Open, only losing to top-five players in the world. He showed his incredible potential; the only question was whether he could beat the best players in the world on the biggest stages. That question was answered by beating the greatest player in the history of the sport in one of the greatest matches Roland-Garros has ever seen. Fonseca now has a chance to win his first major title way ahead of schedule, with only three more wins needed to achieve that remarkable feat.
Jakub Mensik has not stolen the headlines the way that Joao Fonseca, Rafael Jodar and some of these other young guns have. However, the 20-year-old has already defeated two of the top-13 players in the world at the 2026 French Open. Mensik was on the ropes just a few days ago, in the second round against Mariano Navone. Mensik scraped out the win in a super tiebreak. He then needed on-court medical attention because his body had completely broken down from heat, exhaustion and a few hours of high-level tennis. It looked like Mensik’s tournament could be shot after that, but he followed that up with back-to-back wins over Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev.
Mensik has already proven that he can win big tournaments, as he won the 2025 Miami Open by defeating Novak Djokovic. Just like his opponent in this match, it was a win over Djokovic that launched his career. Mensik started 2026 by winning his second career ATP title in Auckland. He also had a best-ever major finish by making it to the fourth round of the Australian Open. Mensik has since eclipsed that with this run to the French Open quarter-finals. It is now his chance to make the headlines by winning the battle of the young phenoms and making his first-ever major semi-final.
These players have both been pushed deep into matches throughout the tournament. Fonseca played back-to-back five-setters in the second and third rounds, then played an intense four-setter against Casper Ruud in the previous round. Meanwhile, Mensik has also played two five-setters so far in the tournament.
These two have only played each other once before, and that fittingly came at the 2024 Next Gen ATP Finals. While they played shorter sets in the Round Robin phase of that tournament, the match between these two did have to go to five sets, where Fonseca eventually got the win.
My best bet for this match is for Joao Fonseca to get the win, but for Jakub Mensik to win at least one set. This parlay can be found at +126 on DraftKings Sportsbook. These two should go to at least four sets, but Fonseca’s quality should ultimately shine through. It seems written in the stars that he continues this incredible run and makes his first-ever major semi-final.
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