Closing down tonight’s three-game NBA playoff slate, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets will face off in a Game 5 matchup. This series has taken a major turn with the Timberwolves jumping out to a 3-1 series lead but dealing with some notable injuries to Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo. Game 5 will be tipping off in Denver with the Nuggets now in a must-win spot.

The Nuggets are 11.5-point favorites and hold -500 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Timberwolves are +380 underdogs, with the game total set at 223.5.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Preview

The Minnesota Timberwolves finished the regular season as the sixth seed in the Western Conference, holding a 49-33 record. They went 36-46 against the spread this season, and the game total remained under in 45 of their 82 games.

Injuries have become the most notable storyline in this series. Donte DiVincenzo suffered a torn Achilles tendon in the early minutes of Game 4, which will keep him sidelined for the foreseeable future. Anthony Edwards also suffered a scary looking knee injury that is officially being labeled a bone bruise and will keep him out for tonight’s matchup and beyond. This backcourt averaged a combined 41.0 points per game across the regular season and has each shown up in the postseason setting. With the duo sidelined, it will add more offensive responsibility to players like Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels, and Ayo Dosunmu, while Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, and Bones Hyland also remain essential.

Looking at the production on the season, the Timberwolves average 118.0 points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. They also rank 12th in offensive rating, ninth in field goal percentage, and sixth in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 114.6 points per game against Minnesota, which ranks 12th in the league. They also rank eighth in defensive rating, seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage.

The Denver Nuggets looked to have their most complete roster of the Nikola Jokic era and some legitimate reason for optimism coming into the playoffs. They finished the regular season with a 54-28 overall record. Denver went 44-38 against the spread this season, and the game total went over in an NBA-leading 52 regular-season games.

The Nuggets lead the NBA in scoring by putting up 122.1 points per game across the regular season. Denver also ranks first in offensive rating, second in field goal percentage, and first in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 116.9 points per game against the Nuggets, which ranks 21st in the league. They also rank 21st in defensive rating, 13th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and third in opponents’ three-point percentage.

Peyton Watson will miss tonight’s game due to a right hamstring strain, while Aaron Gordon is considered questionable with his lingering calf issue. These are each major deals for the outlook for Denver. However, their struggles in this series have had much more to do with the head of the snake, with Nikola Jokic failing to produce at his expected level. It is a sky-high bar for the player who is largely considered the best player in the world, but he has been held in check by Rudy Gobert throughout the series. After possessing the most efficient offense across the regular season, Denver comes off back-to-back games in which they have been held to just 96 points.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction, Best Bet

There is a level of fearlessness the Timberwolves possess when facing this Nuggets team that is not the case for most of the teams around the league. Nikola Jokic has largely been viewed as an unstoppable offensive force that no team is capable of fully stopping. But the Timberwolves have put forth a much better effort than many recognized as possible. Through the opening four games in this series, Jokic is averaging 25.0 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 7.8 assists while shooting just 39.1% from the field and 18.5% from beyond the three-point arc. These are still impressive numbers by the standard of most NBA players. But with the three-time MVP’s hyper-efficiency tendencies in mind, and defensive shortcomings also of note, Jokic has not translated to team success at the rate that is expected to be the case.

However, the outlook for this matchup shifts greatly following the injuries to the Minnesota backcourt. Anthony Edwards is the most important member of the Timberwolves offensive attack, and his absence will be greatly felt. Ayo Dosunmo exploded for 43 points off the bench in the previous victory and will see the most offensive responsibility he has seen thus far with his new team.

Denver must play with some legitimate desperation and put forth a much more convincing effort than has been the case thus far in the series. This is a core with a championship pedigree and more talent than they have shown with their play to this point. But Minnesota has largely had its number, and the 11.5-point spread feels too ambitious based on how this series has gone. My lean would be toward Minnesota covering the number and keeping this game closer than it should be, even with the injuries.

However, my best bet for this matchup is for the game total to remain under the 223.5 number. Minnesota has had success keeping the elite Denver offense in check thus far. Expect this to especially be the case with two of their best scorers sidelined and there being little chance of Minnesota going toe-to-toe in a high-scoring battle. The game total has gone under in all four matchups thus far, and expect this to continue even with the 223.5 number being the lowest total of the series. The combined total has finished at 221, 233, 209, and 208 through the opening four matchups.

Expect Minnesota to slow the pace of play and play through Julius Randle at a greater rate. The Timberwolves will prioritize making this a half court matchup, limit the Nuggets from getting out for easy baskets, and lean on defense to steer them toward having a chance. It is a difficult ask to beat this Nuggets team without Edwards and DiVincenzo. But defense is their clear pathway to having a chance, and expect this to be evident and for the Timberwolves’ missing offensive members to help this scoring total to remain low. With the playoff atmosphere and injuries in mind, back the game total to remain below the 223.5 number and the under to cash for the fifth straight game.

Best Bet: Game Total Under 223.5 (-112)