Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the San Francisco Giants and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Pirates (22-18) and Giants (15-24) close their series at Oracle Park with Pittsburgh trying to carry a loud offensive weekend into getaway day and San Francisco trying to keep another homestand from sliding sideways. The Giants have been searching for steadier run prevention and cleaner lineup rhythm, while the Pirates arrive with a group that has started to look more connected through the middle of the order. It is a late-May style matchup in miniature: one club leaning into recent offensive lift, the other trying to keep the game from opening up too early in a park that can still punish lazy assumptions about carry. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the San Francisco Giants and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Tyler Mahle enters at 1-4 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 37 hits, 18 walks and six HR allowed in 36 innings, and the shape underneath that line is where Pittsburgh’s path starts. His four-seamer remains his most-used pitch, but hitters have tagged it for a .264 average, .391 OBP, .547 SLG, .938 OPS and .409 wOBA. The splitter and slider have been better, so Mahle can survive when he gets ahead and forces chase. The stress comes when he has to live in the zone. He is allowing a 10.6% barrel rate, 1.89 HR/9, and right-handed hitters have done the loudest damage at .338/.434/.585 with a .446 wOBA, five HR and 11 walks in only 15 innings. That combination of traffic, fastball damage and split leakage gives Pittsburgh several inning-building paths.
The top half of the Pirates order has the right mix of force and on-base pressure. Oneil Cruz brings the violent-contact ceiling with a 95.6 mph average exit velocity, 59.8% hard-hit rate, 19.8% barrel rate and .362 xwOBA. Brandon Lowe has been the most productive power bat in the lineup at 10 HR, .269/.368/.585, .315 ISO, .410 wOBA and 161 wRC+, with a 13.5% barrel rate, .402 wOBA and .384 xwOBA supporting the results. Bryan Reynolds gives the order a steadier traffic lane with a .402 OBP, .822 OPS, 91.6 mph average EV, 44.7% hard-hit rate and .350 xwOBA, while Ryan O’Hearn has been a strong left-handed bridge at .294/.380/.441, .365 wOBA, 131 wRC+, 90.4 mph average EV and 45.6% hard-hit rate. That is enough variety to pressure Mahle without relying on one bat to do all the damage.
The lineup length is what makes the scoring case more interesting. Nick Gonzales is built for inning extension at .323/.389/.369, .348 wOBA, 119 wRC+ and only an 18.1% strikeout rate, and he is coming off a four-hit game in Pittsburgh’s 13-run, 20-hit eruption. Joey Bart added four hits, three runs and two RBI in that same game, giving the lower third another right-handed lane into Mahle’s worst split. Marcell Ozuna has not fully matched the name value, but a 9.0% barrel rate and .313 xwOBA still carry enough danger in this specific matchup, and Konnor Griffin gives the order another athletic right-handed bat before it flips. As a group, Pittsburgh has handled right-handed pitching with a .255/.347/.402 slash, .749 OPS, 30 HR, 45 doubles, 80 extra-base hits, 121 walks and 134 RBI, which matters because this is a full-lineup scoring read rather than a one-swing chase.
The market decision comes down to isolating the cleanest part of the game. Pirates ML asks Bubba Chandler, who has walked 26 hitters in 34 innings, to avoid the command spiral that can hand San Francisco a crooked inning. The full-game over asks the Giants to help enough in a park that still plays tricky when the ball is not struck cleanly. Pirates team total over 3.5 at -135 is reasonable, but it is taxed for a number that already carries the recent-form premium after Saturday’s explosion. The better price is the upside version: Pirates team total over 4.5 runs (+115). If the handicap is that Mahle’s fastball, walk rate, right-handed split and the Giants’ bullpen stress can create a real five-run Pittsburgh script, the plus-money number fits the argument better.
That is the play: Pirates team total over 4.5 runs (+115). The way it dies is Mahle landing the splitter early, getting weaker contact from the left-handed top half, and Oracle turning a few well-hit balls into loud outs, but the stronger read is that Pittsburgh has enough lineup-entry points to keep applying pressure. Cruz and Lowe supply the ceiling, Reynolds and O’Hearn supply the traffic, Gonzales and Bart lengthen the order, and Mahle’s profile has too many walk, homer and right-handed damage cracks to price this like a low-ceiling spot.
Projected score: Pirates 5, Giants 3.
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