The Cavaliers are hosting the Raptors for a win-or-go-home Game 7 on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Cleveland is favored by 8.5 points, and this game carries a total of O/U 211.5 points.

Let’s dive into my preview and pick for this matchup.

Cavaliers vs. Raptors preview

The Cavaliers and Raptors find themselves in a do-or-die Game 7 following a classic Game 6. After the Cavaliers rallied back in the fourth quarter to force overtime, Cleveland led by one with 18.8 seconds remaining in the extra period and had possession, but then things took a dramatic turn. Toronto decided to trust its defense instead of playing the foul game, and Collin Murray-Boyles forced an Evan Mobley turnover by swiping the ball out of Mobley’s hands and off his leg.

The Raptors got the ball back with 10.9 seconds remaining, and Scottie Barnes found RJ Barrett at the top of the key for a three-pointer that he hit after it bounced sky high off the back of the rim, which was very reminiscent of Kawhi Leonard’s Game 7 game-winning three-pointer vs. the 76ers in 2019.

This put the Raptors ahead by two, and with 1.2 seconds remaining and following a timeout, the Cavaliers found Mobley for a solid three-point look that he front rimmed. Toronto walked away with the 112-110 win, forcing this Sunday’s Game 7.

In the Game 6 win for Toronto, Scottie Barnes flirted with a triple-double, posting 25 points, 14 assists and seven rebounds, and Barrett finished with 24 points and nine rebounds. With Brandon Ingram out, Ja’Kobe Walter also stepped up again, scoring 24 after scoring 20 points in Game 5, when Ingram exited after 11 minutes. Ingram is dealing with a heel injury and is listed as doubtful; he isn’t expected to suit up for Game 7. While Ingram is a big name, he has struggled this postseason, shooting just 32% from the field while playing some poor defense.

Mostly due to his weak defense, the Raptors’ net rating is a huge 10.0 points per 100 possessions better with Ingram off the floor than with him on in this series, so Toronto should be confident heading into Game 7 despite Ingram being sidelined. The club will need Walter to continue being a strong scoring option in Ingram’s absence, though, and it will be interesting to see if the second-year player will stay hot or cool off in his first Game 7.

For the Cavaliers in Game 6, Mobley had his best game of the series despite the late turnover in overtime, finishing with 26 points and 14 rebounds. Donovan Mitchell also scored 24 points, including 11 in the fourth quarter, and James Harden added 16 points, nine rebounds and nine assists.

The Cavaliers dominated the Raptors on the glass, out-rebounding Toronto 52-38, and as a result, Cleveland won the second-chance points battle 22-10. The Raptors, though, easily outperformed the Cavaliers in fast break points, 20-6. Having home-court has been a big advantage in this series, as the home team has won every game in this best-of-seven. This season, Cleveland is 30-14 at home while Toronto is 22-22 on the road.

The Cavaliers are also the much more experienced group, as Mitchell and Harden have both played in multiple Game 7s, while most of the Raptors, most notably Barnes and Barrett, have never competed in a Game 7 before in their careers. This isn’t to say Toronto can’t win, but the Cavaliers being the favorite for this Game 7 is warranted.

Cavaliers vs. Raptors pick, best bet

This has been a great series, and while the Raptors are riding high after the dramatic Game 6 win, having home-court is a huge factor, and the trend of home teams prevailing should continue in Game 7 with Cleveland advancing.

That being said, covering this 8.5-point spread could be challenging for the Cavaliers. While Cleveland is a great 30-14 SU at home this season, the squad is just 18-26 ATS at home, which tied for the worst home ATS record in the NBA. The Raptors have covered in each of the last four games of this series, and they are 7-2 ATS vs. the Cavaliers this season. This Game 7 should be another close affair, and I like the Raptors to cover.

Best Bet: Raptors +8.5 (-110)