Mayor Daniel Lurie may enjoy stratospheric public approval ratings, but two supervisor races on the June ballot could test his popularity in key districts — and determine how much power he will wield at City Hall in the coming months.

If his preferred candidates lose, his foes could gain the votes they need on the 11-member Board of Supervisors to block his agenda on business taxes, drug policy, and housing — a prospect playing out in two closely watched races: District 2, which covers the wealthy northern neighborhoods of the Marina, Cow Hollow, and Pacific Heights, and District 4, the Sunset, still simmering over the Great Highway fight.

Lurie and his powerful donor network are supporting the incumbents, D2 Supervisor Stephen Sherrill and D4 Supervisor Alan Wong, who are facing serious challengers.

“In some ways, these are proxy fights that will determine the next phase of Lurie’s first term,” said David Ho, a political consultant who has lived in the Sunset for decades and has been heavily involved in previous supervisor races. “This will determine who has the pole position heading into the rest of term one.”

The two seats are often held by moderate Democrats, and Wong and Sherrill have not bucked history — the pair have largely aligned themselves with Lurie’s agenda, especially his controversial Family Zoning Plan, passed last year.

Both Sherrill and Wong are on the ballot to finish out the remainder of their predecessors’ terms. The winners of the June election will serve through January, and both seats will be up for election again in November for full four-year terms. 

Ho noted that San Francisco mayors have often struggled to help their appointed supervisors win elections. Lurie appointed Wong late last year, while Sherrill was appointed by former Mayor London Breed.

The history is not encouraging for Lurie: Former Mayor Ed Lee’s supervisor appointees — Christina Olague, Julie Christensen, and Jeff Sheehy — all lost their elections, and Breed’s appointee Vallie Brown lost to Dean Preston in 2020.

But Lurie has modern-day weapons up his sleeve. His ultra-positive, popular Instagram account will easily shine approval on his endorsed candidates (opens in new tab), as he did in an April post featuring a town hall (opens in new tab)in Sherrill’s district.

“I think it’s political genius,” former Mayor Art Agnos told The Standard.

Ho said the June and November elections will be major tests for Lurie.

“This November’s races will determine whether the mayor will have an easy path to reelection, should he choose to run,” Ho said. “Voters will start to formulate a much deeper feeling about how this mayor is doing.”

District 4 may carry the highest stakes for Lurie, since Wong is his second Sunset appointee following the failed appointment of Isabella “Beya” Alcaraz. The district could be flipped to a progressive, as Wong is facing strong challenges from four candidates, including Natalie Gee, a progressive who represents a clear contrast with Lurie’s agenda.

In District 2, Sherrill’s main challenger is Lori Brooke, cofounder of Neighborhoods United SF and a prominent voice against the upzoning plan that Sherrill supported. Though Sherrill holds a significant fundraising advantage, Brooke has built a strong grassroots base and is widely seen as a credible threat. The head-to-head, insiders believe, favors Sherrill.

But the outcome remains unclear in District 4, given San Francisco’s complicated ranked-choice voting system. Lurie has campaigned alongside Wong, door-knocking in the district, while much of the city’s moderate establishment has lined up behind him. Wong also enjoys hundreds of thousands of dollars from outside spending groups that are aligned with Lurie. 

The year Lurie catapulted into power was widely viewed as a “change election,” (opens in new tab) when incumbent candidates were at a disadvantage. Rob Aiavao, interim executive director of the moderate group Neighbors for a Better San Francisco, said the mayor’s support is clearly beneficial to Wong because many voters believe San Francisco is moving in the right direction. They want a supervisor aligned with the mayor whom they credit with that success.

“Do we want to change direction?” Aiavao said. “My answer is no.”

Neighbors for a Better San Francisco has endorsed Wong as its first-choice candidate and merchant leader Albert Chow as its second-choice candidate. Gee is largely considered a front-runner alongside Wong due to her City Hall experience as a legislative aide and labor backing. Gee has championed what she calls a more nuanced approach (opens in new tab) to rezoning San Francisco, aiming to preserve more rent-controlled housing, and while she is backed by the proponent of closing the Great Highway to transform it into a park, she supports the compromise measure that would see the highway open to cars during the week. 

However, former Sunset Supervisor Gordon Mar, who has endorsed Gee, said the mayor’s popularity doesn’t automatically translate into votes for Wong. Some Lurie supporters are backing other candidates — including YIMBY voters put off by Wong’s move to question an affordable housing project on Irving Street.

“I don’t think the mayor’s support automatically transfers to Alan in the way some people assume,’’ Mar said. “If Alan loses, I think it will be viewed as a significant political setback for the mayor and his billionaire backers.”

Lurie’s shine is bright enough that even Sherrill’s opponent, Brooke, wants to make sure she’s in its radius. At an early May candidate forum hosted by the Marina Community Association in the auditorium of Marina Middle School, both candidates put their Lurie love on full display. 

“Working collaboratively with him and his administration is something I’m very, very proud of,” Sherrill said. “Obviously, I’ve got his endorsement.”

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Brooke told the dozens in the crowd, “I think Mayor Lurie is doing a good job.” But unlike Sherrill, Brooke alleged, she’d stand up for the district when its interests diverge from the mayor’s, like on the Family Zoning Plan, which Sherrill supported, or the proliferation of e-bikes and e-scooters on sidewalks.

“I’m not going to be a rubber stamp,” she said. “I will put my foot down when something is detrimental to the community.”

The otherwise placid crowd burst into applause.

When Sherrill was appointed by Breed at the end of her administration, insiders worried that she was carrying out a favor for Sherrill’s former boss, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. At the time, Jason Pellegrini, a former Marina Community Association (opens in new tab) president and human rights commissioner, called Sherrill’s potential quid pro quo appointment “a slap in the face.” 

A year and a half later, Pellegrini is all-in on Sherrill. 

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Pellegrini believes his neighbors share that opinion for myriad reasons, including Sherrill’s nuanced views on housing, straddling a YIMBY ethos with neighborhood concerns or his commitment to constituent services, like putting a stop sign up at an intersection where a pedestrian was almost struck by a car, or getting the city to fix a buckling sidewalk.

But, Pellegrini admits, Lurie’s support definitely helps.

“I think D2 is a big supporter of the mayor’s office,” he said. “I talked to a few neighbors, and they were able to meet the mayor for the first time because he was in the district.”

Every time Lurie marches through Cow Hollow and Marina thoroughfares, Sherrill in tow, it helps the supervisor candidate that much more. Lurie has ramped up those appearances, Pellegrini said, with one slated for Saturday (opens in new tab) on Union Street.

Charm offensives and Instagram posts go only so far. When the votes are counted June 2, Lurie will know whether his popularity is a governing asset or merely a personal one — and whether he heads into the second half of his first term with the board votes to deliver on his agenda, or fighting a progressive majority that could block him at every turn.