Those prices are putting extra pressure on already-strained American consumers.

“The high-income customer is spending with confidence into many categories, while the lower-income consumer is more budget-conscious and perhaps navigating financial distress,” Rainey said.

Some consumers, he said, are changing their gasoline habits.

“The number of gallons that customers fill up with when they come to our fuel stations fell below 10 for the first time since 2022,” Rainey said. “That’s an indication of stress.”

In April, consumer prices jumped 3.8%, outpacing wage growth for the first time since 2023. Economists said much of the rise was due to soaring fuel costs.

The hit to Americans’ wallets could worsen: Economists warn we have yet to feel the full economic effects of the war.

Higher-than-usual tax refunds might have also alleviated some of the strain. But now that the cushion is over, “consumers are going to feel more of that pressure from higher fuel prices,” Rainey said in an interview Thursday with CNBC.

Not all consumers will feel it equally, however. Walmart’s earnings were only the latest example of what experts call the K-shaped economy. Higher-income households, many benefiting from stock market gains and higher wage growth, are driving an outsized share of consumer spending. Meanwhile, many on the lower end of the “K” are finding their paychecks can’t keep up with rising costs of food, housing, utilities and childcare.

Target reported Wednesday that its first-quarter net sales rose more than 6% over last year. Target’s shares fell in trading Wednesday.

Led by a new CEO, Target is looking to turn around years of declining sales, with some consumers expressing frustration over what they said were disorganized stores and rollbacks of the company’s diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.

But in the retail wars, the new king is Amazon, which recently overtook Walmart as the world’s largest company by revenue.

Walmart, meanwhile, has been positioning itself as a tech-forward competitor to Amazon — including through investments in artificial intelligence. Walmart has also expanded its delivery offerings, and Rainey said it can now deliver products to 60% of U.S. households within 30 minutes.

It may be facing a new challenge in the grocery aisle from supermarket chain Kroger. Bloomberg reported Thursday that Kroger is considering major price cuts to lure back customers who may have decamped to discount retailers for groceries.

But for now, some financial analysts are relatively optimistic about Walmart.

“Walmart is taking real traffic share rather than simply riding price inflation,” Bryan Hayes, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said Thursday.

“In a quarter when U.S. consumer sentiment hit a fresh record low and gasoline prices spiked on Middle East tensions, the fact that more shoppers are walking into Walmart stores and clicking on Walmart.com is arguably the single most important data point in the entire retail tape this earnings season.”