Progressives are cautiously optimistic that they can capture the nomination for a congressional seat in Philadelphia in a race against the Democratic Party’s center-left establishment on Tuesday.

It would give the insurgent left a third high-profile primary win in the last year, following New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s defeat of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Rep. Analilla Mejia’s victory in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District.

Now, Pennsylvania state Rep. Chris Rabb, a favorite of progressives, is taking part in what amounts to a three-way contest to replace retiring Rep. Dwight Evans in Pennsylvania’s 3rd District. Rabb’s supporters and those backing his opponents — Dr. Ala Stanford, a pediatric surgeon, and state Sen. Sharif Street, a former chair of the state Democratic Party — see the race as a jump ball heading into Tuesday’s vote.

But Rabb, who was joined by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., at a rally on Friday, is looking to benefit from his rivals splitting the center-left vote, a dynamic that has helped boost progressives elsewhere.

“[T]o the billionaire class, the Epstein class, we’re coming for you,” Rabb said at the rally with Ocasio-Cortez on Friday. “You’re not safe, your money will not protect you. We’re coming for you. See, we’re worried that they’re coming for us, but they’ve always been coming for us. We’re turning the tables, we’re coming for you.”

“Don’t you see, our power is immense,” he continued. “They’re afraid we’re going to do the same thing to them that they’ve done to us. But this is about so much more than vengeance. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve got a little space in my heart for vengeance, I do, but I’m here for justice. … And if you’re an enemy of justice, you’re an enemy of mine.”

The district was the bluest in the country in the 2024 election, giving 88% of its votes to then-Vice President Kamala Harris, according to analysis from the NBC News Decision Desk. Progressives, including Ocasio-Cortez at her Friday rally with Rabb, have highlighted that point to argue it should have a representative who is trying to push the party further left.

“So what kind of Democrat will represent the bluest district in America?” she said. “Is it going to be a Democrat who collaborates with special interests and lobbyists, or is it going to be a Democrat who put everything on the line to deliver for the people and communities that they love.”

Each contender has garnered some significant endorsements in the race. Rabb is backed by Ocasio-Cortez, Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., and groups including the Working Families Party and Justice Democrats. He also won the endorsement of The Philadelphia Inquirer.

Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for Justice Democrats, said a victory in the district would give progressives a true foothold in the state, with Rabb joining Pittsburgh-based Democratic Rep. Summer Lee.

“It’s a really important moment for Pennsylvania and progressives in Pennsylvania,” Andrabi said, adding, “Because in a state like Pennsylvania, we should have Philly and Pittsburgh and other cities in between leading the way with the progressive vision for this state to break us out of this fake idea that we have to treat Pennsylvania like a swing state and appeal to the loudest, most moderate right-wing voices.”

But there are more people and groups with sway beyond the progressive wing. Stanford has Evans’ backing, as well as support from Reps. Madeline Dean and Chrissy Houlahan, who represent nearby districts.

Street, whose father was the mayor of Philadelphia, is backed by current Mayor Cherelle Parker, state House Speaker Joanna McClinton, Sen. Cory Booker — who campaigned for Street on Monday — and many local labor unions.

Street’s supporters have at times described him as the actual progressive in the race, saying he has a more substantial record than his rivals.

When it comes to Street’s “history and his record of service,” said state Sen. Vincent Hughes, it’s “much higher than any of the other candidates.” He added: “He’s been involved in the big policy conversations. He’s also been unafraid to attack and go after and call to the carpet Donald Trump and the MAGA folks.”

As for whether Ocasio-Cortez’s support and appearance in the district could help boost Rabb over the finish line, Hughes pointed to Booker’s rally for Street and the support he has from both local and out-of-state officials.

“I’m a fan of hers, and I think she is making important contributions, not only just in advocacy, but she’s also broadening her capacity by doing some real significant policy work as well, which I think is important,” he said, adding, “However, I think it’s all going to relate to ‘what have you done to help people.’”

One person who has not made an endorsement in the race is Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who has waded into the four battleground House races in the state. Axios reported this month that Shapiro and allies have privately expressed disapproval of Rabb and that the governor advised some local unions not to help Rabb by attacking one of the center-left candidates.

“Governor Shapiro is focused on flipping Republican seats and winning up and down the ballot in November,” Shapiro spokesperson Manuel Bonder said in a statement. “The governor has not endorsed or opposed anyone in this primary — and he looks forward to working directly with whoever wins in November and continue to deliver for Philadelphia, just as he has with Congressman Evans.”

“I’ve not seen the hand of the governor involved in this race, both externally, publicly, or privately,” Hughes said, adding, “I think he’s got three individuals who he respects.”

Street has come under fire from opponents and their allies for working with Republicans on a redistricting effort years ago that would have boosted his own political fortunes at the expense of Democrats broadly. Stanford, meanwhile, has suffered some stumbles on the trail, including in an interview with the local NBC station. Rabb, meanwhile, generated controversy after appearing with the left-wing streamer Hasan Piker, who has become a lightning rod in Democratic primaries.

The biggest tension point in the race has involved Israel, Gaza and U.S. involvement in the Middle East amid the war in Iran, including questions about whether to describe the Israeli conduct in Gaza as a “genocide” and how pro-Israel donors seek to influence Democratic Party politics domestically.

The issue took center stage at Rabb’s rally with Ocasio-Cortez on Friday and was mentioned by a number of speakers. The state representative has criticized opponents for refusing to describe Israel’s actions in Gaza as a genocide. He and allies have also claimed Stanford is being supported by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee because of an independent expenditure on her behalf from 314 Action Fund, which received money from an AIPAC-aligned group in 2024. 314 Action Fund said it has not taken any funding from AIPAC this cycle while AIPAC denied it is funding efforts in the district.

“Millions of Americans want to help tough, principled Democrats defeat extremist candidates,” the group said in a post to X. “Despite conspiracy theories, not every dollar spent in that effort comes via AIPAC.”

Stanford though had garnered attention in March when she compared the effect of using the word genocide to a racial slur. “I know when you use the G-word how hurtful it is to a group of people,” she said. “It’s like someone saying the N-word around me.” Street, who would be the first Muslim elected to Congress from Pennsylvania, does not describe the conditions in Gaza as genocide and has narrowed his criticism to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“We know the Democratic voters oppose the genocide and that they support an arms embargo and ending funding to the Israeli military,” Andrabi said. “So I think we can assume the bluest district in the country feels that way as well.”

Pointing to the allegations of AIPAC involvement in the race, one Democratic operative at a liberal Jewish organization said the contest provided “an illustrative example of how things can really spiral out of control when people are so angry about AIPAC, understandably, but they’re not doing due diligence before accusing candidates of getting their support.”

“It is one of the few issues that there is some split” among Democrats, this person said. “And voters view how candidates talk about Israel as a signal to, like, ‘Are you bucking the establishment? Are you bucking the status quo?’ That said, in reality, most Democrats in Congress and voters have a nuanced position.”

Hughes said Israel and the Middle East are “important” but said constituents are more focused on local economic and quality of life issues.

“So it’s important that we have that international conversation, from obviously everything that’s going on in the Middle East to what’s happening in Ukraine … in various places in Africa,” he said. “At the same time, we have to have more conversation about what’s happening in the neighborhoods across the district and who’s best poised to help those neighborhoods from a policy level.”