Clear your schedule, and get your mint julep ready. The Kentucky Derby is tomorrow! Of the 151 iterations of the race, NBC Sports’ Tim Layden has covered 22. He explains why the Derby is both the most consistent — and unpredictable — of all sporting events. Also, our numbers guy Steve Kornacki analyzed the Derby field and identified some best bets.
Tomorrow, our NBC News sports team will be live-blogging the Derby all day, keeping you up to date on all the biggest hats and the long shots. Check the NBC News website for continuing coverage, too.
The Kentucky Derby is the most static and reliable piece of the American sports calendar. It has been contested almost annually without interruption since 10 years after the end of the Civil War, and on the first Saturday in May for almost a century.
But the Derby is also one of the most unpredictable sporting events of the year. Hunter S. Thompson famously called it “Decadent and Depraved,” for reasons very unrelated to horse racing. It could just as well be called “Chaotic and Capricious.”
I’ve seen dominant performances by deserving winners like Smarty Jones (2004), American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018). But I’ve also seen favorites get beaten, like Fierceness two years ago, because a very good colt was not good at all on Derby Saturday and finished 15th, and Journalism last year, because a very good colt was actually quite good on Derby Saturday but another horse — Sovereignty — was strikingly better and would prove in subsequent months to be the best of his class by a wide margin.
This volatility is a product of the race’s parameters themselves: The Derby is for 3-year-olds. In the spring of the year, they are fast-developing athletes, often likened by racing insiders to human teenagers.
The winner of the Derby can be a horse that came into maturity only in the weeks leading up to the race. The event is also run at a distance of 1 1/4 miles and with a 20-horse field; none of the horses in the field has seen those conditions, nor will they ever see them again. It is both an enduring athletic test and a crapshoot.
This was just an excerpt. For Layden’s full essay, read here.
There’s no other horse race in the country like the Kentucky Derby. And that’s especially true when it comes to wagering. With 20 horses running and all of America watching, it means massive sums of money are being bet in all directions — with the possibility of a memorable payday if you can sort through the field and find a winner.
This is my annual attempt to find my way to the winner and to find a ticket I can cash and retire on. Or at least pay for a nice dinner:
The Puma is trained by Gustavo Delgado, who spent most of his career in Venezuela before finding success in the U.S. over the last decade. His unorthodox training style, working horses longer and harder than most, paid off in 2023 when he won the Derby with Mage — who, just like The Puma, came in off a second-place finish at the Florida Derby.
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Derby six times officially, and seven times for betting purposes. (Medina Spirit crossed the wire first in 2021 and his bettors were paid out at 12-1 odds, only for the official result to be changed due to a medication violation months later.)
Baffert has two horses in the field, Litmus Test and Potente. The latter may be the one to watch. Potente was a $2.4 million purchase and has only raced three times. But look at what happened in the San Vicente Stakes, when Potente sat off the leaders early before taking over in the stretch to win. That’s the kind of trip he should get in the Derby.
Is Potente good enough to make the first move, take the lead and then hold off the talented closers? You’d be betting on potential there. But when Baffert is the trainer and the odds are this long (20-1 morning line odds for Potente), maybe that’s not such a bad bet.
Also, Emerging Market is a bit of a trendy pick at 15-1 morning line odds. His trainer, Chad Brown, is not known to rush unprepared horses into big races, so it says a lot that he’s willing to enter this horse in the Derby. And his rider, Flavien Prat, has a knack for outrunning the odds with his mounts in Triple Crown races. Clearly, there is upside potential here.
For a full breakdown, read Kornacki’s Derby preview here.
Manchester United hosts Liverpool at Old Trafford on Sunday in a huge rivalry game with both teams close to clinching Champions League qualification. That represents the bare minimum for these superclubs, but given United’s struggles in recent seasons, and even earlier in this campaign when manager Ruben Amorim was fired, it is a remarkable achievement for the Red Devils.
Reigning Premier League champions Liverpool have struggled mightily for most of this season and never looked likely to defend their crown. But a new era is being ushered in with club legends Mohamed Salah and Andy Robertson leaving this summer, while Alisson Becker could also follow them out of Anfield.
Liverpool manager Arne Slot’s future has been in doubt, but he’s steadied the ship impressively. Given the incredible quality of summer 2025 signings Hugo Ekitike, Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak, Liverpool look set to challenge for the title next season if they can upgrade their defensive and central midfield options.
United should look keenly at Liverpool’s success in taking the big step from Champions League regulars to Premier League title contenders. Former Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp ushered in that transition over many years of careful, targeted spending on two to three key players each summer rather than scattergun recruitment.
Quality over quantity is key. They may not like it, but the best way for United to become title contenders once again is to copy exactly what their bitter rivals Liverpool did.
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The New York Knicks defeated the Atlanta Hawks by an eye-popping amount in a record-setting playoff rout.
The Philadelphia 76ers forced a Game 7 against the Boston Celtics.
Jaden McDaniels led the injury-ravaged Minnesota Timberwolves past the Denver Nuggets.
Iran will be at this summer’s World Cup, FIFA said.
Roger Goodell opened the door to a Cleveland Super Bowl.
Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz broke one of Barry Bonds’ modern records.
The NBA playoffs continue with three more Game 6s tonight. Can the No. 1 seed Detroit Pistons complete their comeback and force a Game 7 against the No. 8 Orlando Magic? Same for the Houston Rockets, who were once down 0-3 against the Los Angeles Lakers?
This first round has been wild and unpredictable. Nothing would surprise us.
All times are Eastern:
That’s it for now! We’ll be back Monday.
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