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cs.LG updates on arXiv.org

Memory-Guided Trust-Region Bayesian Optimization (MG-TuRBO) for High Dimensions EngageTriBoost: Predictive Modeling of User Engagement in Digital Mental Health Intervention Using Explainable Machine Learning Reservoir observer enhanced with residual calibration and attention mechanism Efficient RL Training for LLMs with Experience Replay Wireless Communication Enhanced Value Decomposition for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Adversarial Sensor Errors for Safe and Robust Wind Turbine Fleet Control IKKA: Inversion Classification via Critical Anomalies for Robust Visual Servoing Adaptive Simulation Experiment for LLM Policy Optimization EvoLen: Evolution-Guided Tokenization for DNA Language Model Smartwatch-Based Sitting Time Estimation in Real-World Office Settings Structural Evaluation Metrics for SVG Generation via Leave-One-Out Analysis Loom: A Scalable Analytical Neural Computer Architecture Spectral Geometry of LoRA Adapters Encodes Training Objective and Predicts Harmful Compliance Finite-Sample Analysis of Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis:Sample Complexity and Identifiability Bounds How does Chain of Thought decompose complex tasks? Uncertainty-Aware Transformers: Conformal Prediction for Language Models Adaptive Candidate Point Thompson Sampling for High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization Using Synthetic Data for Machine Learning-based Childhood Vaccination Prediction in Narok, Kenya Delve into the Applicability of Advanced Optimizers for Multi-Task Learning Bridging SFT and RL: Dynamic Policy Optimization for Robust Reasoning Multi-Agent Decision-Focused Learning via Value-Aware Sequential Communication Predictive Entropy Links Calibration and Paraphrase Sensitivity in Medical Vision-Language Models Efficient Hierarchical Implicit Flow Q-learning for Offline Goal-conditioned Reinforcement Learning Modality-Aware Zero-Shot Pruning and Sparse Attention for Efficient Multimodal Edge Inference The nextAI Solution to the NeurIPS 2023 LLM Efficiency Challenge Feature-Label Modal Alignment for Robust Partial Multi-Label Learning Integrated electro-optic attention nonlinearities for transformers Toward World Models for Epidemiology Tracing the Chain: Deep Learning for Stepping-Stone Intrusion Detection Batch Distillation Data for Developing Machine Learning Anomaly Detection Methods
NumLeak: Public Numeric Benchmarks as Latent Labels in Fo...
Anany Kotawala · 2026-05-28 · via cs.LG updates on arXiv.org

Public numeric benchmarks appear in pretraining, so an evaluation that conditions on a date may be measuring memorized recall rather than out-of-sample skill. We introduce NumLeak, a measurement framework that combines API-boundary probes on production models with a white-box controlled validation on an open causal LM. Top-tier frontier LLMs recall the Fama-French market excess return at 3-seed pooled Pearson r=0.97-0.99 while staying within 0.15 within-25bps on the five sibling factors; comparable fidelity appears on U.S. unemployment, CPI inflation, and NOAA temperature. On a recent-release holdout, parse rate collapses to 21-57% but r stays at approximately 0.99 on months answered, the refuse-or-recall asymmetry a memorized channel predicts. The white-box experiment reproduces the dose-response, and logprob ranking detects memorization that open-ended generation misses, implying closed-API black-box probes understate the channel. A Sonnet "date to market-sentiment" regression that correlates with true Mkt-RF at r=0.74 collapses to r=0.02 once the model's own recall is residualized out. A one-line system-prompt defense blocks 99.8% of a non-adaptive single-turn suffix attack set at near-zero utility cost on conceptual and historical-narrative queries