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Certain Head, Uncertain Tail: Expert-Sample for Test-Time...
Yuanteng Che · 2026-05-04 · via cs.LG updates on arXiv.org

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Abstract:Test-time scaling improves LLM performance by generating multiple candidate solutions, yet token-level sampling requires temperature tuning that trades off diversity against stability. Fine-grained MoE, featuring hundreds of well-trained experts per layer and multi-expert activation per token, offers an unexplored alternative through its rich routing space. We empirically characterize fine-grained MoE routing and uncover an informative pattern: router scores exhibit a certain head of high-confidence experts followed by an uncertain tail of low-confidence candidates. While single-run greedy accuracy remains stable when fewer experts are activated, multi-sample pass@n degrades significantly-suggesting that the certain head governs core reasoning capability while the uncertain tail correlates with reasoning diversity. Motivated by these findings, we propose Expert-Sample, a training-free method that preserves high-confidence selections while injecting controlled stochasticity into the uncertain tail, enabling diverse generation without destabilizing outputs. Evaluated on multiple fine-grained MoE models across math, knowledge reasoning, and code tasks, Expert-Sample consistently improves pass@n and verification-based accuracy. On Qwen3-30B-A3B-Instruct evaluated on GPQA-Diamond with 32 parallel samples, pass@32 rises from 85.4% to 91.9%, and accuracy improves from 59.1% to 62.6% with Best-of-N verification.
Comments: 25 pages, 13 figures
Subjects: Machine Learning (cs.LG)
Cite as: arXiv:2602.02443 [cs.LG]
  (or arXiv:2602.02443v2 [cs.LG] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2602.02443

arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

Journal reference: International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2026

Submission history

From: Yuanteng Chen [view email]
[v1] Mon, 2 Feb 2026 18:39:33 UTC (900 KB)
[v2] Fri, 1 May 2026 11:10:35 UTC (909 KB)