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Memory-Guided Trust-Region Bayesian Optimization (MG-TuRBO) for High Dimensions EngageTriBoost: Predictive Modeling of User Engagement in Digital Mental Health Intervention Using Explainable Machine Learning Reservoir observer enhanced with residual calibration and attention mechanism Efficient RL Training for LLMs with Experience Replay Wireless Communication Enhanced Value Decomposition for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Adversarial Sensor Errors for Safe and Robust Wind Turbine Fleet Control IKKA: Inversion Classification via Critical Anomalies for Robust Visual Servoing Adaptive Simulation Experiment for LLM Policy Optimization EvoLen: Evolution-Guided Tokenization for DNA Language Model Smartwatch-Based Sitting Time Estimation in Real-World Office Settings Structural Evaluation Metrics for SVG Generation via Leave-One-Out Analysis Loom: A Scalable Analytical Neural Computer Architecture Spectral Geometry of LoRA Adapters Encodes Training Objective and Predicts Harmful Compliance Finite-Sample Analysis of Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis:Sample Complexity and Identifiability Bounds How does Chain of Thought decompose complex tasks? Uncertainty-Aware Transformers: Conformal Prediction for Language Models Adaptive Candidate Point Thompson Sampling for High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization Using Synthetic Data for Machine Learning-based Childhood Vaccination Prediction in Narok, Kenya Delve into the Applicability of Advanced Optimizers for Multi-Task Learning Bridging SFT and RL: Dynamic Policy Optimization for Robust Reasoning Multi-Agent Decision-Focused Learning via Value-Aware Sequential Communication Predictive Entropy Links Calibration and Paraphrase Sensitivity in Medical Vision-Language Models Efficient Hierarchical Implicit Flow Q-learning for Offline Goal-conditioned Reinforcement Learning Modality-Aware Zero-Shot Pruning and Sparse Attention for Efficient Multimodal Edge Inference The nextAI Solution to the NeurIPS 2023 LLM Efficiency Challenge Feature-Label Modal Alignment for Robust Partial Multi-Label Learning Integrated electro-optic attention nonlinearities for transformers Toward World Models for Epidemiology Tracing the Chain: Deep Learning for Stepping-Stone Intrusion Detection Batch Distillation Data for Developing Machine Learning Anomaly Detection Methods
Enforcing tail calibration when training probabilistic fo...
Jakob Benjamin Wessel, Maybritt Schillinger, Frank Kwasniok, Sam · 2025-06-17 · via cs.LG updates on arXiv.org

Probabilistic forecasts are typically obtained using state-of-the-art statistical and machine learning models, with model parameters estimated by optimizing a proper scoring rule over a set of training data. If the model class is not correctly specified, then the learned model will not necessarily issue forecasts that are calibrated. Calibrated forecasts allow users to appropriately balance risks in decision making, and it is particularly important that forecast models issue calibrated predictions for extreme events, since such outcomes often generate large socio-economic impacts. In this work, we study how the loss function used to train probabilistic forecast models can be adapted to improve the reliability of forecasts made for extreme events. We investigate loss functions based on weighted scoring rules, and additionally propose regularizing loss functions using a measure of tail miscalibration. We apply these approaches to a hierarchy of increasingly flexible forecast models for UK wind speeds, including simple parametric models, distributional regression networks, and conditional generative models. We demonstrate that state-of-the-art models do not issue calibrated forecasts for extreme wind speeds, and that the calibration of forecasts for extreme events can be improved by suitable adaptations to the loss function during model training. This introduces a trade-off between calibrated forecasts for extreme events and calibrated forecasts for more common outcomes.