Abstract:Energy trading decisions depend not only on current market prices, but also on expected future market conditions, and operational constraints. This makes the state representation given to a reinforcement learning agent an important design choice. We study this in HydroDam, a pumped-storage arbitrage environment, using a fixed Double DQN agent. The environment, action space, reward function, network, and training protocol are kept fixed; only the market features are changed. We compare absolute price/calendar features, relative features that compare current prices with recent market history, forecast features, and all combinations of these three feature families. Policies are trained and selected using 2007--2011 Belgian day-ahead prices and evaluated on two test settings: a later same-market test set from 2012--2025 and 39 other ENTSO-E market zones. Absolute features only reaches 28.8% on the test set and a median 5.7% across zones. Relative-only and forecast-only states also stay below a rolling price-score heuristic in the cross-zone median. Combining feature families is much stronger: absolute + relative reaches 49.9% on the test set and a 39.8% cross-zone median, while absolute + relative + forecast reaches 55.6% and 47.5%. These results suggest that state representation is not a minor preprocessing choice in storage-trading RL, but a central part of the policy design: robust transfer requires combining price scale, recent relative price context, and short-horizon forecast information, rather than relying on any single feature family.
From: Vincent Francois-Lavet [view email]
[v1]
Thu, 25 Jun 2026 13:39:57 UTC (299 KB)
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