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Memory-Guided Trust-Region Bayesian Optimization (MG-TuRBO) for High Dimensions EngageTriBoost: Predictive Modeling of User Engagement in Digital Mental Health Intervention Using Explainable Machine Learning Reservoir observer enhanced with residual calibration and attention mechanism Efficient RL Training for LLMs with Experience Replay Wireless Communication Enhanced Value Decomposition for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Adversarial Sensor Errors for Safe and Robust Wind Turbine Fleet Control IKKA: Inversion Classification via Critical Anomalies for Robust Visual Servoing Adaptive Simulation Experiment for LLM Policy Optimization EvoLen: Evolution-Guided Tokenization for DNA Language Model Smartwatch-Based Sitting Time Estimation in Real-World Office Settings Structural Evaluation Metrics for SVG Generation via Leave-One-Out Analysis Loom: A Scalable Analytical Neural Computer Architecture Spectral Geometry of LoRA Adapters Encodes Training Objective and Predicts Harmful Compliance Finite-Sample Analysis of Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis:Sample Complexity and Identifiability Bounds How does Chain of Thought decompose complex tasks? Uncertainty-Aware Transformers: Conformal Prediction for Language Models Adaptive Candidate Point Thompson Sampling for High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization Using Synthetic Data for Machine Learning-based Childhood Vaccination Prediction in Narok, Kenya Delve into the Applicability of Advanced Optimizers for Multi-Task Learning Bridging SFT and RL: Dynamic Policy Optimization for Robust Reasoning Multi-Agent Decision-Focused Learning via Value-Aware Sequential Communication Predictive Entropy Links Calibration and Paraphrase Sensitivity in Medical Vision-Language Models Efficient Hierarchical Implicit Flow Q-learning for Offline Goal-conditioned Reinforcement Learning Modality-Aware Zero-Shot Pruning and Sparse Attention for Efficient Multimodal Edge Inference The nextAI Solution to the NeurIPS 2023 LLM Efficiency Challenge Feature-Label Modal Alignment for Robust Partial Multi-Label Learning Integrated electro-optic attention nonlinearities for transformers Toward World Models for Epidemiology Tracing the Chain: Deep Learning for Stepping-Stone Intrusion Detection Batch Distillation Data for Developing Machine Learning Anomaly Detection Methods
Beyond Static Uncertainty: Modeling Temporal Uncertainty ...
Yijun Wang, Qiyuan Zhuang, Larysa Marchanka, Xiu-Shen Wei · 2026-03-25 · via cs.LG updates on arXiv.org

Real-world time series exhibit temporally structured uncertainty: volatility clusters in turbulent regimes, dissipates in stable periods, and shifts abruptly around structural breaks. Yet many probabilistic forecasting methods estimate predictive uncertainty as an independent per-step quantity, leaving the evolution and persistence of volatility regimes under-modeled. We formalize this missing dimension as temporal uncertainty dynamics and instantiate it in the Volatility Dynamics Variational Autoencoder (VolDy-VAE), a non-autoregressive generative forecaster with a location-scale decoder. VolDy-VAE combines a location path for mean prediction with a recurrent scale path that transfers and evolves a volatility hidden state from the look-back window to the forecasting horizon, enabling temporally coherent predictive variances. This design yields an adaptive attenuation mechanism: high-variance observations receive lower influence on the location estimate while their uncertainty is preserved through explicit scale predictions. We further provide a simplified regime-switching analysis showing that, when variances are known or consistently estimated, the volatility-aware objective reduces to inverse-variance weighting, whereas MSE-based estimators remain unbiased but statistically inefficient. Experiments on nine benchmarks show that VolDy-VAE improves forecasting accuracy and uncertainty calibration over competitive probabilistic and point-forecasting baselines while maintaining low inference latency; plug-in studies further indicate that the VolDy principle can benefit GAN, Koopman VAE, and Transformer backbones. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/wangyijunlyy/VolDy-VAE.