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Memory-Guided Trust-Region Bayesian Optimization (MG-TuRBO) for High Dimensions EngageTriBoost: Predictive Modeling of User Engagement in Digital Mental Health Intervention Using Explainable Machine Learning Reservoir observer enhanced with residual calibration and attention mechanism Efficient RL Training for LLMs with Experience Replay Wireless Communication Enhanced Value Decomposition for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Adversarial Sensor Errors for Safe and Robust Wind Turbine Fleet Control IKKA: Inversion Classification via Critical Anomalies for Robust Visual Servoing Adaptive Simulation Experiment for LLM Policy Optimization EvoLen: Evolution-Guided Tokenization for DNA Language Model Smartwatch-Based Sitting Time Estimation in Real-World Office Settings Structural Evaluation Metrics for SVG Generation via Leave-One-Out Analysis Loom: A Scalable Analytical Neural Computer Architecture Spectral Geometry of LoRA Adapters Encodes Training Objective and Predicts Harmful Compliance Finite-Sample Analysis of Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis:Sample Complexity and Identifiability Bounds How does Chain of Thought decompose complex tasks? Uncertainty-Aware Transformers: Conformal Prediction for Language Models Adaptive Candidate Point Thompson Sampling for High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization Using Synthetic Data for Machine Learning-based Childhood Vaccination Prediction in Narok, Kenya Delve into the Applicability of Advanced Optimizers for Multi-Task Learning Bridging SFT and RL: Dynamic Policy Optimization for Robust Reasoning Multi-Agent Decision-Focused Learning via Value-Aware Sequential Communication Predictive Entropy Links Calibration and Paraphrase Sensitivity in Medical Vision-Language Models Efficient Hierarchical Implicit Flow Q-learning for Offline Goal-conditioned Reinforcement Learning Modality-Aware Zero-Shot Pruning and Sparse Attention for Efficient Multimodal Edge Inference The nextAI Solution to the NeurIPS 2023 LLM Efficiency Challenge Feature-Label Modal Alignment for Robust Partial Multi-Label Learning Integrated electro-optic attention nonlinearities for transformers Toward World Models for 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Counts: Quantifying Uncertainty of LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems through Tensor Decomposition Unified Multimodal Uncertain Inference EfficientSign: An Attention-Enhanced Lightweight Architecture for Indian Sign Language Recognition Skip-Connected Policy Optimization for Implicit Advantage PRAGMA: Revolut Foundation Model 3D-VCD: Hallucination Mitigation in 3D-LLM Embodied Agents through Visual Contrastive Decoding Creator Incentives in Recommender Systems: A Cooperative Game-Theoretic Approach for Stable and Fair Collaboration in Multi-Agent Bandits Evidential Transformation Network: Turning Pretrained Models into Evidential Models for Post-hoc Uncertainty Estimation StructRL: Recovering Dynamic Programming Structure from Learning Dynamics in Distributional Reinforcement Learning Generative 3D Gaussian Splatting for Arbitrary-ResolutionAtmospheric Downscaling and Forecasting From Selection to Scheduling: Federated Geometry-Aware Correction Makes Exemplar Replay Work Better under 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Evaluating Escalation Behavior in Automation with Language Models Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection via Dual-Branch Reconstruction and Autoregressive Flow-based Residual Density Estimation On the Spectral Geometry of Cross-Modal Representations: A Functional Map Diagnostic for Multimodal Alignment Structured Exploration and Exploitation of Label Functions for Automated Data Annotation MolPaQ: Modular Quantum-Classical Patch Learning for Interpretable Molecular Generation CausalVAD: De-confounding End-to-End Autonomous Driving via Causal Intervention Reinforcement-aware Knowledge Distillation for LLM Reasoning SubQuad: Near-Quadratic-Free Structure Inference with Distribution-Balanced Objectives in Adaptive Receptor framework A Horizon-Aware Decision-Support Framework for Demand Forecasting Model Selection in Resilient Production Planning Measurement-Consistent Langevin Corrector for Stabilizing Latent Diffusion Inverse Problem Solvers Multi-agent Adaptive Mechanism Design When & How to Write for Personalized Demand-aware Query Rewriting in Video Search Relational Visual Similarity From Navigation to Refinement: Revealing the Two-Stage Nature of Flow-based Diffusion Models through Oracle Velocity On-the-Fly Adaptation to Quantization: Configuration-Aware LoRA for Efficient Fine-Tuning of Quantized LLMs STCast: Adaptive Boundary Alignment for Global and Regional Weather Forecasting OmniPrism: Learning Disentangled Visual Concept for Image Generation FIT-GNN: Faster Inference Time for GNNs that 'FIT' in Memory Using Coarsening
Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis: State of the Field, Methodological Gaps, and Strategic Implications
Gopal P. Sarma, Sunny D. Bhatt, Michael Jacob, Rachel Steratore · 2026-03-25 · via cs.LG updates on arXiv.org

In this report, we review the current state of methodologies to forecast the arrival of artificial general intelligence, assess their reliability, and analyze the implications for strategy and policy. We synthesize diverse forecasting approaches, document significant limitations in existing methods, and propose a research agenda for developing more-robust forecasting infrastructure. The report does not endorse a specific forecast or scenario but rather provides a framework for interpreting forecasts under conditions of deep uncertainty. We experimented with an iterative approach to human and artificial intelligence collaboration for this report. The primary drafting of the text was performed by large language models (GPT 5.1, Gemini 3 Pro, and Claude 4.5 Opus), with human researchers providing direction, peer review, fact-checking, and revision.

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