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Memory-Guided Trust-Region Bayesian Optimization (MG-TuRBO) for High Dimensions EngageTriBoost: Predictive Modeling of User Engagement in Digital Mental Health Intervention Using Explainable Machine Learning Reservoir observer enhanced with residual calibration and attention mechanism Efficient RL Training for LLMs with Experience Replay Wireless Communication Enhanced Value Decomposition for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Adversarial Sensor Errors for Safe and Robust Wind Turbine Fleet Control IKKA: Inversion Classification via Critical Anomalies for Robust Visual Servoing Adaptive Simulation Experiment for LLM Policy Optimization EvoLen: Evolution-Guided Tokenization for DNA Language Model Smartwatch-Based Sitting Time Estimation in Real-World Office Settings Structural Evaluation Metrics for SVG Generation via Leave-One-Out Analysis Loom: A Scalable Analytical Neural Computer Architecture Spectral Geometry of LoRA Adapters Encodes Training Objective and Predicts Harmful Compliance Finite-Sample Analysis of Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis:Sample Complexity and Identifiability Bounds How does Chain of Thought decompose complex tasks? Uncertainty-Aware Transformers: Conformal Prediction for Language Models Adaptive Candidate Point Thompson Sampling for High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization Using Synthetic Data for Machine Learning-based Childhood Vaccination Prediction in Narok, Kenya Delve into the Applicability of Advanced Optimizers for Multi-Task Learning Bridging SFT and RL: Dynamic Policy Optimization for Robust Reasoning Multi-Agent Decision-Focused Learning via Value-Aware Sequential Communication Predictive Entropy Links Calibration and Paraphrase Sensitivity in Medical Vision-Language Models Efficient Hierarchical Implicit Flow Q-learning for Offline Goal-conditioned Reinforcement Learning Modality-Aware Zero-Shot Pruning and Sparse Attention for Efficient Multimodal Edge Inference The nextAI Solution to the NeurIPS 2023 LLM Efficiency Challenge Feature-Label Modal Alignment for Robust Partial Multi-Label Learning Integrated electro-optic attention nonlinearities for transformers Toward World Models for Epidemiology Tracing the Chain: Deep Learning for Stepping-Stone Intrusion Detection Batch Distillation Data for Developing Machine Learning Anomaly Detection Methods
Generalisable prediction model of surgical case duration:...
Daijiro Kabata, Mari Ito, Tokito Koga, Kazuma Yunoki · 2025-11-12 · via cs.LG updates on arXiv.org

Background: Accurate prediction of surgical case duration underpins operating room (OR) scheduling, yet existing models often depend on site- or surgeon-specific inputs and rarely undergo external validation, limiting generalisability. Methods: We undertook a retrospective multicentre study using routinely collected perioperative data from two general hospitals in Japan (development: 1 January 2021-31 December 2023; temporal test: 1 January-31 December 2024). Elective weekday procedures with American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status 1-4 were included. Pre-specified preoperative predictors comprised surgical context (year, month, weekday, scheduled duration, general anaesthesia indicator, body position) and patient factors (sex, age, body mass index, allergy, infection, comorbidity, ASA). Missing data were addressed by multiple imputation by chained equations. Four learners (elastic-net, generalised additive models, random forest, gradient-boosted trees) were tuned within internal-external cross-validation (IECV; leave-one-cluster-out by centre-year) and combined by stacked generalisation to predict log-transformed duration. Results: We analysed 63,206 procedures (development 45,647; temporal test 17,559). Cluster-specific and pooled errors and calibrations from IECV are provided with consistent performance across centres and years. In the 2024 temporal test cohort, calibration was good (intercept 0.423, 95%CI 0.372 to 0.474; slope 0.921, 95%CI 0.911 to 0.932). Conclusions: A stacked machine-learning model using only widely available preoperative variables achieved accurate, well-calibrated predictions in temporal external validation, supporting transportability across sites and over time. Such general-purpose tools may improve OR scheduling without relying on idiosyncratic inputs.