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Phase-Type Variational Autoencoders for Heavy-Tailed Data
Abdelhakim Ziani, András Horváth, Paolo Ballarini · 2026-03-02 · via cs.LG updates on arXiv.org

Heavy-tailed distributions are ubiquitous in real-world data, where rare but extreme events dominate risk and variability. However, standard Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) employ simple decoder distributions, such as Gaussian distributions, that fail to capture heavy-tailed behavior, while existing heavy-tail-aware extensions remain restricted to predefined parametric families whose tail behavior is fixed a priori. We propose the Phase-Type Variational Autoencoder (PH-VAE), whose decoder distribution is a latent-conditioned Phase-Type (PH) distribution, defined as the absorption time of a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). This formulation composes multiple exponential time scales, yielding a flexible and analytically tractable decoder that adapts its finite-range tail behavior directly from the observed data. Experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks demonstrate that PH-VAE accurately approximates diverse heavy-tailed distributions, significantly outperforming Gaussian, Student-t, and extreme-value-based VAE decoders in modeling observed tail behavior and extreme quantiles. In multivariate settings, PH-VAE captures realistic cross-dimensional tail dependence through its shared latent representation. To our knowledge, this is the first work to integrate Phase-Type distributions into deep generative modeling, bridging applied probability and representation learning.