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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Interpretable deep convolutional model for nonlinear mult...
Domjan Baric, Davor Horvatic · 2025-01-08 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

We introduce the Deep Convolutional Interpreter for Time Series (DCIts), a deep-learning architecture for nonlinear multivariate time series that provides sample-specific, locally interpretable descriptions of the underlying interaction structure. Unlike standard black-box forecasters, DCIts learns a time- and lag-dependent transition tensor explicitly factorized into two components: a Focuser, which selects relevant source series and time lags via a sparse masking mechanism, and a Modeler, which assigns signed coefficients to these selected interactions. This decomposition yields a local lag-adjacency structure and signed source-lag contributions for every forecast instance, enabling direct inspection of effective connectivity; when higher-order branches are activated, the same framework yields order-resolved elementwise polynomial contributions. Architecturally, DCIts uses a diverse bank of convolutional filters to capture temporal and cross-variable dependencies, which are mapped through a bottleneck network to the transition tensor. On controlled benchmark datasets with a known interaction structure, we demonstrate that DCIts achieves competitive forecasting error relative to a strong interpretable baseline while recovering stable, signed, lag-resolved interaction patterns. The framework thus prioritizes intrinsic interpretability, using forecasting accuracy as a faithfulness constraint rather than the sole objective.