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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Safe and Sharp Honest Inference for Nonparametric Estimat...
Zihao Yuan, Sven Klaassen · 2026-05-05 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Calibration of an honest confidence interval means choosing, for each $α\in(0,1)$, how the corresponding $α$-critical value is converted into a radius yielding coverage probability at least $1-α$. Standard-normal critical-value calibration (SNC) is the default route for many confidence intervals based on nonparametric smoothers in nonparametric econometrics. However, this calibration method creates a structural difficulty: the normalization yielding a limiting distribution also makes a small estimation bias become a non-negligible inferential bias. We take a different calibration route by combining the tail control of empirical Bernstein inequalities with a fixed-length-radius optimization from bias-aware inference. We establish the formal theory in canonical scalar-covariate regression and density settings, with the regression theory ranging from local-polynomial to weighted-average estimators. The resulting empirical Bernstein confidence intervals (EBCIs) are "safe" and "sharp". Safety means that, uniformly over functions with some $S$-th order local smoothness, both one-sided and two-sided intervals attain the nominal coverage level up to a remainder $o(n^{-\frac{2S}{2S+1}})$, or an exponential remainder in bounded or sub-Gaussian settings. Sharpness means that interval widths shrink at the minimax rate $n^{-\frac{S}{2S+1}}$. Moreover, in the small-$α$ regime, the EBCI radius is first-order aligned with the radii of bias-aware fixed-length confidence intervals. Thus, EBCI safely converts correctly specified smoothness into both coverage accuracy and interval-length efficiency. The contribution is not a new bias-control approach, but a new calibration principle for the radius of a confidence interval. The method can be combined with existing ideas such as bias-aware inference (BA) and robust bias correction (RBC), while avoiding the bias inflation induced by SNC.