惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Google DeepMind News
Google DeepMind News
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题
小众软件
小众软件
爱范儿
爱范儿
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
量子位
博客园_首页
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
The Cloudflare Blog
J
Java Code Geeks
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
U
Unit 42
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
腾讯CDC
P
Proofpoint News Feed
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
D
Docker
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog

cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Ensemble Graph Neural Networks for Probabilistic Sea Surf...
Alejandro J. González-Santana, Giovanny A. Cuervo-Londoño, Javie · 2026-03-06 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Accurate regional ocean forecasting requires models that are both computationally efficient and capable of representing predictive uncertainty. This work investigates ensemble learning strategies for sea surface temperature (SST) forecasting using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), with a focus on how input perturbation design affects forecast skill and uncertainty representation. We adapt a GNN architecture to the Canary Islands region in the North Atlantic and implement a homogeneous ensemble approach inspired by bagging, where diversity is introduced during inference by perturbing initial ocean states rather than retraining multiple models. Several noise-based ensemble generation strategies are evaluated, including Gaussian noise, Perlin noise, and fractal Perlin noise, with systematic variation of noise intensity and spatial structure. Ensemble forecasts are assessed over a 15-day horizon using deterministic metrics (RMSE and bias) and probabilistic metrics, including the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the Spread-skill ratio. Results show that, while deterministic skill remains comparable to the single-model forecast, the type and structure of input perturbations strongly influence uncertainty representation, particularly at longer lead times. Ensembles generated with spatially coherent perturbations, such as low-resolution Perlin noise, achieve better calibration and lower CRPS than purely random Gaussian perturbations. These findings highlight the critical role of noise structure and scale in ensemble GNN design and demonstrate that carefully constructed input perturbations can yield well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts without additional training cost, supporting the feasibility of ensemble GNNs for operational regional ocean prediction.