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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Joint Treatment Effect Estimation from Incomplete Healthc...
Olivia Jullian Parra, Sara Zoccheddu, David Catalan Cerezo, Tom · 2026-05-07 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Target trial emulation (TTE) enables causal questions to be studied with observational data when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are infeasible. Yet treatment-effect methods often address causal estimation, missingness, and temporal structure separately, limiting their robustness in electronic health records (EHRs), where time-varying confounding and missing-not-at-random (MNAR) biomarkers can reach 50%--80%. We propose a two-stage pipeline for treatment effect estimation from incomplete longitudinal EHRs. First, CausalFlow-T, a directed acyclic graph (DAG)-constrained normalizing flow with long short-term memory (LSTM)-encoded patient history, performs exact invertible counterfactual inference, avoiding approximation errors from variational inference and separating confounding through explicit causal structure. Ablations on four synthetic and one semi-synthetic benchmark with known counterfactuals show that DAG constraints and exact inference address distinct failure modes: neither compensates for the other. Second, because CausalFlow-T requires completed inputs, we introduce an LLM-driven evolutionary imputer that proposes executable imputation operators rather than individual entries, and evaluate it with three large language model (LLM) backends, including two open-source models. Across 30%--80% MNAR missingness, this imputer achieves the best pooled rank over biomarker and causal metrics, leading in point-wise accuracy and temporal extrapolation while preserving average treatment effect (ATE) recovery as statistical baselines degrade. On Swiss primary-care EHRs from adults with type 2 diabetes initiating a GLP-1 receptor agonist or SGLT-2 inhibitor, the pipeline estimates a per-protocol weight-loss difference of -0.98 kg [95% CI -1.01, -0.96] favoring GLP-1 receptor agonists, consistent with randomized evidence and obtained from realistically incomplete real-world EHRs.