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Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Scalable Transit Delay Prediction at City Scale: A System...
Emna Boudabbous, Mohamed Karaa, Lokman Sboui, Julio Montecinos, · 2026-01-26 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Urban bus transit agencies need reliable, network-wide delay predictions to provide accurate arrival information to passengers and support real-time operational control. Accurate predictions help passengers plan their trips, reduce waiting time, and allow operations staff to adjust headways, dispatch extra vehicles, and manage disruptions. Although real-time feeds such as GTFS-Realtime (GTFS-RT) are now widely available, most existing delay prediction systems handle only a few routes, depend on hand-crafted features, and offer little guidance on how to design a scalable, reusable architecture. We present a city-scale prediction pipeline that combines multi-resolution feature engineering, dimensionality reduction, and deep learning. The framework generates 1,683 spatiotemporal features by exploring 23 aggregation combinations over H3 cells, routes, segments, and temporal patterns, and compresses them into 83 components using Adaptive PCA while preserving 95% of the variance. To avoid the "giant cluster" problem that occurs when dense urban areas fall into a single H3 region, we introduce a hybrid H3+topology clustering method that yields 12 balanced route clusters (coefficient of variation 0.608) and enables efficient distributed training. We compare five model architectures on six months of bus operations from the Société de transport de Montréal (STM) network in Montréal. A global LSTM with cluster-aware features achieves the best trade-off between accuracy and efficiency, outperforming transformer models by 18 to 52% while using 275 times fewer parameters. We also report multi-level evaluation at the elementary segment, segment, and trip level with walk-forward validation and latency analysis, showing that the proposed pipeline is suitable for real-time, city-scale deployment and can be reused for other networks with limited adaptation.