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Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? 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ReplaySCM: A Benchmark for Executable Causal Mechanism Induction from Interventions
Serafim Batzoglou · 2026-05-06 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Most causal benchmarks for language models score local answers or graph structure. We introduce ReplaySCM, a 1,300 item benchmark for executable causal mechanism induction from finite interventional evidence. Each item contains binary worlds generated by a latent fully observed acyclic Boolean structural causal model (SCM). A system must output a mechanism map in a restricted Boolean DSL; the submission is parsed, checked for legality and acyclicity, and replayed on training and held-out intervention worlds. Scoring uses replay behavior rather than formula strings, so syntactically different mechanisms receive credit when they behave correctly. ReplaySCM varies the structural information disclosed to the model through Ordered, Block-order, Hidden-order, and Hidden-roots settings, and includes Alternative-SCM tasks that supply a valid reference SCM and ask for a semantically distinct alternative that fits the training worlds, together with a separating intervention and witness. Frontier LLMs infer parts of the functional-parent structure, but held-out replay drops sharply when order or root structure is hidden. We also evaluate a matched support-audit ladder: Original, Extra Worlds, and Counterexample Audit (CEx), that raises mean local predecessor-pattern coverage from 0.8949 to 0.9815 to 1.0; under the audited searches, no discovered semantic alternative remains consistent with the training worlds. The Ordered/Hidden-order gap persists under this stronger evidence. ReplaySCM complements answer-level causal reasoning and graph-discovery benchmarks by evaluating executable replay generalization from finite interventional evidence, without claiming unique identification of the latent SCM.