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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Error...
Theodor Spiro · 2026-04-08 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

When large language models (LLMs) are consulted as forecasting tools, the independence of individual errors -- the foundation of collective intelligence -- may collapse. We test three conditions necessary for this "epistemic monoculture" to emerge. In Study 1, we show that GPT-4o, Claude, and Gemini exhibit highly correlated forecasting errors on 568 resolved binary prediction questions (mean pairwise error correlation r = 0.77, p < 0.001; r = 0.78 excluding likely-leaked questions), despite being developed independently by different organizations. In Study 2, we test whether this correlated bias has propagated into human crowd forecasts, using a within-question design that tracks community prediction shifts across the ChatGPT launch boundary (November 2022). We find that community forecasts move in the direction predicted by LLMs (r = 0.20, p = 0.007), but this shift is fully explained by rational updating toward ground truth. In Study 3, we examine whether the category-level pattern of human forecasting errors increasingly resembles the LLM bias fingerprint. We find the opposite: pre-ChatGPT human biases already strongly resembled the LLM pattern (r = 0.87), while post-ChatGPT the resemblance weakened (r = -0.28). Together, these findings reveal an epistemic monoculture that is built but not yet activated: three nominally independent AI systems share the same failure modes, amplifying precisely the biases humans already hold.