惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Google DeepMind News
Google DeepMind News
T
Threat Research - Cisco Blogs
U
Unit 42
Recorded Future
Recorded Future
博客园_首页
Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
MongoDB | Blog
MongoDB | Blog
IT之家
IT之家
腾讯CDC
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
小众软件
小众软件
Y
Y Combinator Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
cs.CV updates on arXiv.org
cs.CV updates on arXiv.org
I
Intezer
C
Cisco Blogs
D
Darknet – Hacking Tools, Hacker News & Cyber Security
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
S
Schneier on Security
T
Tenable Blog
S
Securelist
Cyberwarzone
Cyberwarzone
V
V2EX
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
G
Google Developers Blog
AWS News Blog
AWS News Blog
Security Latest
Security Latest
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
Latest news
Latest news
Simon Willison's Weblog
Simon Willison's Weblog
量子位
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
L
Lohrmann on Cybersecurity
T
Tor Project blog
Scott Helme
Scott Helme
W
WeLiveSecurity
The Register - Security
The Register - Security
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
B
Blog
AI
AI
K
KPMG report finds enterprise disconnect between AI and its ROI | CIO
cs.AI updates on arXiv.org
cs.AI updates on arXiv.org
P
Proofpoint News Feed
F
Full Disclosure

cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy ReFEree: Reference-Free and Fine-Grained Method for Evaluating Factual Consistency in Real-World Code Summarization From Query to Counsel: Structured Reasoning with a Multi-Agent Framework and Dataset for Legal Consultation CodaRAG: Connecting the Dots with Associativity Inspired by Complementary Learning Think in Sentences: Explicit Sentence Boundaries Enhance Language Model's Capabilities CircuitSynth: Reliable Synthetic Data Generation ASPIRin: Action Space Projection for Interactivity-Optimized Reinforcement Learning in Full-Duplex Speech Language Models Computational Implementation of a Model of Category-Theoretic Metaphor Comprehension CoSToM:Causal-oriented Steering for Intrinsic Theory-of-Mind Alignment in Large Language Models Should We be Pedantic About Reasoning Errors in Machine Translation? GIANTS: Generative Insight Anticipation from Scientific Literature SafeAdapt: Provably Safe Policy Updates in Deep Reinforcement Learning Many-Tier Instruction Hierarchy in LLM Agents Rays as Pixels: Learning A Joint Distribution of Videos and Camera Trajectories PhysInOne: Visual Physics Learning and Reasoning in One Suite Neural Distribution Prior for LiDAR Out-of-Distribution Detection Interactive ASR: Towards Human-Like Interaction and Semantic Coherence Evaluation for Agentic Speech Recognition PDE-regularized Dynamics-informed Diffusion with Uncertainty-aware Filtering for Long-Horizon Dynamics Leave My Images Alone: Preventing Multi-Modal Large Language Models from Analyzing Images via Visual Prompt Injection Regime-Conditional Retrieval: Theory and a Transferable Router for Two-Hop QA Identification and Anonymization of Named Entities in Unstructured Information Sources for Use in Social Engineering Detection Hypergraph Neural Networks Accelerate MUS Enumeration ASTRA: Adaptive Semantic Tree Reasoning Architecture for Complex Table Question Answering Neighbourhood Transformer: Switchable Attention for Monophily-Aware Graph Learning Aligned Agents, Biased Swarm: Measuring Bias Amplification in Multi-Agent Systems WOMBET: World Model-Based Experience Transfer for Robust and Sample-efficient Reinforcement Learning Adaptive Dual Residual U-Net with Attention Gate and Multiscale Spatial Attention Mechanisms (ADRUwAMS) Revisiting the Capacity Gap in Chain-of-Thought Distillation from a Practical Perspective A Mathematical Framework for Temporal Modeling and Counterfactual Policy Simulation of Student Dropout Temporal Dropout Risk in Learning Analytics: A Harmonized Survival Benchmark Across Dynamic and Early-Window Representations MedFormer-UR: Uncertainty-Routed Transformer for Medical Image Classification Dictionary-Aligned Concept Control for Safeguarding Multimodal LLMs SenBen: Sensitive Scene Graphs for Explainable Content Moderation eBandit: Kernel-Driven Reinforcement Learning for Adaptive Video Streaming Accelerating Transformer-Based Monocular SLAM via Geometric Utility Scoring Deep Learning-Based Tracking and Lineage Reconstruction of Ligament Breakup Every Response Counts: Quantifying Uncertainty of LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems through Tensor Decomposition 3D-VCD: Hallucination Mitigation in 3D-LLM Embodied Agents through Visual Contrastive Decoding On Semiotic-Grounded Interpretive Evaluation of Generative Art Evidential Transformation Network: Turning Pretrained Models into Evidential Models for Post-hoc Uncertainty Estimation QARIMA: A Quantum Approach To Classical Time Series Analysis StructRL: Recovering Dynamic Programming Structure from Learning Dynamics in Distributional Reinforcement Learning From Selection to Scheduling: Federated Geometry-Aware Correction Makes Exemplar Replay Work Better under Continual Dynamic Heterogeneity Detection of Hate and Threat in Digital Forensics: A Case-Driven Multimodal Approach Semantic Intent Fragmentation: A Single-Shot Compositional Attack on Multi-Agent AI Pipelines Joint Interference Detection and Identification via Adversarial Multi-task Learning Springdrift: An Auditable Persistent Runtime for LLM Agents with Case-Based Memory, Normative Safety, and Ambient Self-Perception From Dispersion to Attraction: Spectral Dynamics of Hallucination Across Whisper Model Scales AlphaLab: Autonomous Multi-Agent Research Across Optimization Domains with Frontier LLMs Act or Escalate? Evaluating Escalation Behavior in Automation with Language Models Kill-Chain Canaries: Stage-Level Tracking of Prompt Injection Across Attack Surfaces and Model Safety Tiers Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection via Dual-Branch Reconstruction and Autoregressive Flow-based Residual Density Estimation On the Spectral Geometry of Cross-Modal Representations: A Functional Map Diagnostic for Multimodal Alignment Structured Exploration and Exploitation of Label Functions for Automated Data Annotation MolPaQ: Modular Quantum-Classical Patch Learning for Interpretable Molecular Generation QuanBench+: A Unified Multi-Framework Benchmark for LLM-Based Quantum Code Generation Generating High Quality Synthetic Data for Dutch Medical Conversations Re-Mask and Redirect: Exploiting Denoising Irreversibility in Diffusion Language Models Reinforcement-aware Knowledge Distillation for LLM Reasoning SubQuad: Near-Quadratic-Free Structure Inference with Distribution-Balanced Objectives in Adaptive Receptor framework A Horizon-Aware Decision-Support Framework for Demand Forecasting Model Selection in Resilient Production Planning H-AdminSim: A Multi-Agent Simulator for Realistic Hospital Administrative Workflows with FHIR Integration AgencyBench: Benchmarking the Frontiers of Autonomous Agents in 1M-Token Real-World Contexts Reasoning Models Will Sometimes Lie About Their Reasoning Multi-agent Adaptive Mechanism Design Relational Visual Similarity From Navigation to Refinement: Revealing the Two-Stage Nature of Flow-based Diffusion Models through Oracle Velocity On-the-Fly Adaptation to Quantization: Configuration-Aware LoRA for Efficient Fine-Tuning of Quantized LLMs STCast: Adaptive Boundary Alignment for Global and Regional Weather Forecasting HCAST: Human-Calibrated Autonomy Software Tasks OmniPrism: Learning Disentangled Visual Concept for Image Generation
Time Series Foundation Models for Energy Load Forecasting on Consumer Hardware: A Multi-Dimensional Zero-Shot Benchmark
Luigi Simeone · 2026-02-11 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have introduced zero-shot prediction capabilities that bypass the need for task-specific training. Whether these capabilities translate to mission-critical applications such as electricity demand forecasting--where accuracy, calibration, and robustness directly affect grid operations--remains an open question. We present a multi-dimensional benchmark evaluating four TSFMs (Chronos-Bolt, Chronos-2, Moirai-2, and TinyTimeMixer) alongside Prophet as an industry-standard baseline and two statistical references (SARIMA and Seasonal Naive), using ERCOT hourly load data from 2020 to 2024. All experiments run on consumer-grade hardware (AMD Ryzen 7, 16GB RAM, no GPU). The evaluation spans four axes: (1) context length sensitivity from 24 to 2048 hours, (2) probabilistic forecast calibration, (3) robustness under distribution shifts including COVID-19 lockdowns and Winter Storm Uri, and (4) prescriptive analytics for operational decision support. The top-performing foundation models achieve MASE values near 0.31 at long context lengths (C = 2048h, day-ahead horizon), a 47% reduction over the Seasonal Naive baseline. The inclusion of Prophet exposes a structural advantage of pre-trained models: Prophet fails when the fitting window is shorter than its seasonality period (MASE > 74 at 24-hour context), while TSFMs maintain stable accuracy even with minimal context because they recognise temporal patterns learned during pre-training rather than estimating them from scratch. Calibration varies substantially across models--Chronos-2 produces well-calibrated prediction intervals (95% empirical coverage at 90% nominal level) while both Moirai-2 and Prophet exhibit overconfidence (~70% coverage). We provide practical model selection guidelines and release the complete benchmark framework for reproducibility.