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Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Extreme value forecasting using relevance-based data augm...
Junru Hua, Rahul Ahluwalia, Rohitash Chandra · 2025-10-02 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Data augmentation with generative adversarial networks (GANs) has been popular for class imbalance problems, mainly for pattern classification and computer vision-related applications. Extreme value forecasting is a challenging field that has various applications from finance to climate change problems. In this study, we present a data augmentation framework for extreme value forecasting. In this framework, our focus is on forecasting extreme values using deep learning models in combination with data augmentation models such as GANs and synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE). We use deep learning models such as convolutional long short-term memory (Conv-LSTM) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BD-LSTM) networks for multistep ahead prediction featuring extremes. We investigate which data augmentation models are the most suitable, taking into account the prediction accuracy overall and at extreme regions, along with computational efficiency. We also present novel strategies for incorporating data augmentation, considering extreme values based on a relevance function. Our results indicate that the SMOTE-based strategy consistently demonstrated superior adaptability, leading to improved performance across both short- and long-horizon forecasts. Conv-LSTM and BD-LSTM exhibit complementary strengths: the former excels in periodic, stable datasets, while the latter performs better in chaotic or non-stationary sequences.