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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

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Beyond Static Leaderboards: Predictive Validity for the E...
[Submitted on 18 Jun 2026] · 2026-06-19 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Authors:Dhaval C. Patel, Kaoutar El Maghraoui, Shuxin Lin, Yusheng Li, Tianjun Feng, Chun-Yi Tsai, Yihan Sun, Wei Alexander Xin, Akshat Bhandari, Tanisha Rathod, Aaron Fan, Sanskruti Vijay Shejwal, Tomas Pasiecznik, Sagar Chethan Kumar, Tanmay Agarwal, Rohith Kanathur, Sam Colman, Amaan Sheikh, Dev Bahl, Ann Li, Krish Veera, Alimurtaza Mustafa Merchant, Shambhawi Baswaraj Bhure, Sajal Kumar Goyla, Chengrui Li, Kirthana Natarajan, Rui Li, Thomas Ajai, Rujing Li, Vivek G. Iyer, Sanjaii Vijayakumar, Yitong Bai, Ayal Yakobe, Darief Maes, Yassine Jebbouri, Tianyang Xu, Thai Quoc On, Vera Mazeeva, Winston Li, Yuval Shemla, Yeshitha Bhuvanesh, Rushin Bhatt, Siddharth Chethan Gowda, Alisha Vinod, Caroline Cahill, Shriya Aishani Rachakonda, Yunfeng Chen, Aryaman Agrawal, Aman Upganlawar, Mao Le Jonathan Ang, Yubin Sally Go, Madhav Rajkondawar, Yang-Jung Chen, Trisha Maturi, Ananya Kapoor, Andrew Li, Shrey Arora, Mana Abbaszadeh, Shen Li, Charles Xu, Byeolah Kwon

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Abstract:Agent benchmarks are growing fast, but no single benchmark touches more than four or five of the dimensions that deployment exposes. This paper aggregates the largest coordinated deep-dive of one MCP-based industrial-agent benchmark to date: fourteen parallel implementation studies covering new asset classes (including a multi-modal visual extension), alternative orchestrations, retrieval strategies, reasoning modes, infrastructure optimizations, and evaluation-methodology probes. Consolidating those studies with seven prior agent benchmarks, we argue that aggregate-score leaderboards systematically underspecify deployed-agent evaluation. Rankings derived from aggregate scores do not transfer to out-of-distribution settings; recent public-to-hidden competition retrospectives provide direct empirical evidence of this rank instability. We propose ranking configurations by predictive validity, the correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample rank, rather than in-sample mean, and report a twelve-tier measurement apparatus that exposes the deployment-relevant dimensions HELM and its agent-era successors collapse. The position is operationalized through three falsifiable out-of-distribution criteria with explicit thresholds; existing evidence partly supports it but is too thin to confirm. We close with a pre-registered pilot design and a field-level vision for what the next generation of agentic benchmarks should report.

Submission history

From: Dhaval Patel Dr [view email]
[v1] Thu, 18 Jun 2026 02:02:46 UTC (49 KB)