While open sourced Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have proliferated, selecting the optimal pretrained model for a specific downstream task remains challenging. Exhaustive evaluation is often infeasible due to computational constraints and data limitations in few shot scenarios. Existing selection methods fail to fully address this: they either rely on data-intensive proxies or use symmetric textual descriptors that neglect the inherently directional and model-specific nature of transferability. To address this problem, we propose a framework that grounds model selection in the internal functional dynamics of the visual encoder. Our approach represents each task via layer wise conductance and derives a target-conditioned block importance distribution through entropy regularized alignment. Building on this, we introduce Directional Conductance Divergence (DCD), an asymmetric metric that quantifies how effectively a source task covers the target's salient functional blocks. This allows for predicting target model rankings by aggregating source task ranks without direct inference. Experimental results on 48 VLMs across 21 datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a 14.7% improvement in NDCG@5 over SWAB.