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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Relevance-Aware Thresholding in Online Conformal Predicti...
Théo Dupuy, Binbin Xu, Stéphane Perrey, Jacky Montmain, Abdelhak · 2025-10-03 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Uncertainty quantification has received considerable interest in recent works in Machine Learning. In particular, Conformal Prediction (CP) gains ground in this field. For the case of time series, Online Conformal Prediction (OCP) becomes an option to address the problem of data distribution shift over time. Indeed, the idea of OCP is to update a threshold of some quantity (whether the miscoverage level or the quantile) based on the distribution observation. To evaluate the performance of OCP methods, two key aspects are typically considered: the coverage validity and the prediction interval width minimization. Recently, new OCP methods have emerged, offering long-run coverage guarantees and producing more informative intervals. However, during the threshold update step, most of these methods focus solely on the validity of the prediction intervals~--~that is, whether the ground truth falls inside or outside the interval~--~without accounting for their relevance. In this paper, we aim to leverage this overlooked aspect. Specifically, we propose enhancing the threshold update step by replacing the binary evaluation (inside/outside) with a broader class of functions that quantify the relevance of the prediction interval using the ground truth. This approach helps prevent abrupt threshold changes, potentially resulting in narrower prediction intervals. Indeed, experimental results on real-world datasets suggest that these functions can produce tighter intervals compared to existing OCP methods while maintaining coverage validity.