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Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Factorize to Generalize: Retrieval-Guided Invariant-Dynam...
Jinjin Chi, Lei Feng, Lulu Zhang, Yongcheng Jing, Yiming Wang, X · 2026-05-24 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently achieved strong zero-shot forecasting performance through large-scale pretraining and retrieval-augmented prediction. However, our empirical analysis reveals a non-trivial limitation of retrieval-based forecasting: retrieval tends to induce more oscillatory predictions, improving performance on highly fluctuating series while degrading accuracy on smoother, trend-dominated ones. This suggests that retrieved information may be fused into prediction without explicitly distinguishing stable temporal structure from instance-specific variations, which can reduce robustness under distribution shifts. We propose a Retrieval-guided Invariant-Dynamic DEcomposition framework for time series forecasting. Rather than using retrieval as auxiliary predictive context, we leverage retrieved sequences as implicit samples from related environments to guide representation decomposition. Specifically, we first construct a retrieval-aware representation via attention-based aggregation, and then introduce a retrieval-guided routing mechanism to decompose it into an invariant component capturing stable shared structure and a dynamic component modeling context-dependent variations. These two components are forecast separately and fused for final prediction, enabling the model to preserve transferable patterns while remaining adaptive to evolving dynamics. We further design training objectives that encourage invariant learning and disentanglement, and provide theoretical insight showing that retrieval aggregation reduces variance and approximates invariant representation learning without explicit environment supervision. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method consistently improves robustness under distribution shifts and outperforms existing TSFMs and retrieval-based baselines in zero-shot forecasting settings.