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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Multi-Quantile Regression for Extreme Precipitation Downs...
Hamed Najafi, Gareth Lagerwall, Jayantha Obeysekera, Jason Liu · 2026-05-13 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Deep super-resolution networks for precipitation downscaling achieve strong bulk skill yet systematically under-predict the heavy-tail events that drive flood risk. We demonstrate that the primary obstacle is the loss function, not the data: under intensity-weighted MAE, real and synthetic labels at the same input are simply averaged, meaning data augmentation shifts the predicted mean rather than the conditional distribution. We resolve this with Q-SRDRN, a multi-quantile super-resolution network trained with pinball loss at tau in 0.50, 0.95, 0.99, 0.999. Two CNN-specific design choices make this practical: IncrementBound enforces monotonicity while preserving each quantile channel's gradient identity, and separate per-quantile output heads provide independent filter banks for bulk and tail detection. Under this design, data augmentation via cVAE becomes complementary: the median head absorbs synthetic patterns without contaminating upper quantiles. Empirically, on Florida (convective/tropical-cyclone dominated), the un-augmented Q-SRDRN P999 head detects 1,598 of 2,111 events at 200 mm/day versus 88 for the deterministic baseline--an 18x detection-rate gain (4.2% to 75.7%)--with 63% lower KL divergence and 3.9% lower RMSE. Adding cVAE-generated samples lifts the P50 channel from 14 to 1,038 hits at 200 mm/day. On California (atmospheric-river dominated), the architecture reaches near-perfect detection (P999 SEDI >= 0.996 through 300 mm/day). On Texas, the baseline catches only 2 of 10,720 events at 200 mm/day while the P999 head catches 8,776 (81.9%). While the cVAE does not transfer across regions, multi-quantile regression captures extremes wherever the large-scale signal is strong, while augmentation rescues the median where it is not.