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Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Prediction and Forecast of Short-Term Drought Impacts Usi...
Hatim M. E. Geli, Islam Omar, Mona Y. Elshinawy, David W. DuBios · 2025-12-21 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Drought is a complex natural hazard that affects ecological and human systems, often resulting in substantial environmental and economic losses. Recent increases in drought severity, frequency, and duration underscore the need for effective monitoring and mitigation strategies. Predicting drought impacts rather than drought conditions alone offers opportunities to support early warning systems and proactive decision-making. This study applies machine learning techniques to link drought indices with historical drought impact records (2005:2024) to generate short-term impact forecasts. By addressing key conceptual and data-driven challenges regarding temporal scale and impact quantification, the study aims to improve the predictability of drought impacts at actionable lead times. The Drought Severity and Coverage Index (DSCI) and the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) were combined with impact data from the Drought Impact Reporter (DIR) to model and forecast weekly drought impacts. Results indicate that Fire and Relief impacts were predicted with the highest accuracy, followed by Agriculture and Water, while forecasts for Plants and Society impacts showed greater variability. County and state level forecasts for New Mexico were produced using an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model that incorporated both DSCI and ESI. The model successfully generated forecasts up to eight weeks in advance using the preceding eight weeks of data for most impact categories. This work supports the development of an Ecological Drought Information Communication System (EcoDri) for New Mexico and demonstrates the potential for broader application in similar drought-prone regions. The findings can aid stakeholders, land managers, and decision-makers in developing and implementing more effective drought mitigation and adaptation strategies.