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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Enhancing Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting in Off-the-Sh...
Xingyou Yin, Ceyao Zhang, Min Hu, Kai Chen · 2025-12-23 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated effectiveness as zero-shot time series (TS) forecasters. The key challenge lies in tokenizing TS data into textual representations that align with LLMs' pre-trained knowledge. While existing work often relies on fine-tuning specialized modules to bridge this gap, a distinct, yet challenging, paradigm aims to leverage truly off-the-shelf LLMs without any fine-tuning whatsoever, relying solely on strategic tokenization of numerical sequences. The performance of these fully frozen models is acutely sensitive to the textual representation of the input data, as their parameters cannot adapt to distribution shifts. In this paper, we introduce a simple yet highly effective strategy to overcome this brittleness: injecting noise into the raw time series before tokenization. This non-invasive intervention acts as a form of inference-time augmentation, compelling the frozen LLM to extrapolate based on robust underlying temporal patterns rather than superficial numerical artifacts. We theoretically analyze this phenomenon and empirically validate its effectiveness across diverse benchmarks. Notably, to fully eliminate potential biases from data contamination during LLM pre-training, we introduce two novel TS datasets that fall outside all utilized LLMs' pre-training scopes, and consistently observe improved performance. This study provides a further step in directly leveraging off-the-shelf LLMs for time series forecasting.