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TL;DR

• Adjusted stablecoin volume is projected to reach $719 trillion by 2035 through organic growth alone. Factor in macro catalysts, and that figure could approach $1.5 quadrillion.
• Between 2028 and 2048, an estimated $100 trillion in wealth will likely move from Boomers to Millennials and Gen Z (generations far more likely to use crypto as a default financial tool).
• Stablecoin payment volumes are on pace to match Visa and Mastercard’s off-chain transaction volumes somewhere between 2031 and 2039, putting direct competitive pressure on legacy payment rails.
• Deals like Stripe’s acquisition of Bridge and Mastercard’s partnership with BVNK signal that stablecoins are becoming core payments infrastructure.

In 2025, stablecoins processed $28 trillion in real economic volume. By 2035, that figure could reach $1.5 quadrillion, surpassing today’s entire cross-border payments market.

The excitement around continued growth is warranted. Since the GENIUS Act signaled serious regulatory momentum in the U.S., stablecoins have dominated the conversation in financial services circles. But beneath the policy debates and market speculation lies a more fundamental question: What does the economic data actually tell us about the risk and opportunity stablecoins present for traditional financial institutions? For these firms, opportunities abound in unlocking faster, lower-cost, and programmable payments infrastructure. And those that fail to embrace on-chain rails may face a risk of disintermediation.

Unlike legacy payment rails — which rely on layers of intermediaries, batch processing, and multi-day settlement windows — stablecoins settle in seconds, operate 24/7, and move across borders without correspondent banking friction. For institutions and their customers, this translates to lower transaction costs, faster finality, and programmable money that can be embedded directly into software and workflows. Compared to legacy systems, stablecoin-powered payments can reduce reconciliation overhead, eliminate intermediaries, and enable transactions 24/7 across markets worldwide. These advantages are already driving adoption in remittances, B2B payments, and treasury operations.

In this report, the first in a series examining stablecoin use cases across financial products, we focus on payments: the sector where stablecoins have the clearest traction today. However, stablecoins are also likely to reshape financial products more broadly, from lending and capital markets to treasury and liquidity management. Two forces are converging to accelerate this shift: the largest generational wealth transfer in history (up to $100 trillion moving to crypto-native Millennials and Gen Z) and the quiet march toward stablecoin acceptance at the point of sale. Together, these catalysts could reshape the competitive landscape for payments in ways that traditional institutions can no longer afford to ignore.

Measuring utility: Adjusted stablecoin volume projections

Raw stablecoin transaction data can be misleading. Liquidity provisioning, bot activity, and maximum extractable value (MEV) transfers inflate headline numbers without reflecting genuine economic use. To cut through this noise, we use adjusted stablecoin volume, a metric that filters for organic economic activity like payments, remittances, and settlement.

Adjusted volume has grown at a 133% compound annual growth rate since 2023, reaching $28 trillion in real economic activity in 2025. If this baseline growth continues with no additional catalysts, we project volumes could hit $719 trillion by 2035.

But baseline growth likely understates what’s coming. Two macro inflection points are poised to accelerate adoption significantly:

1. Generational wealth transfer: $80-100 trillion will move over the coming decades from Boomers to Millennials and Gen Z, generations where nearly half have held or currently hold crypto, per 2025 Gemini survey results.
2. Point-of-sale saturation: As more merchants accept stablecoins, paying with crypto shifts from a deliberate choice to default payments infrastructure — the same transition credit cards made over cash.

Factor in these catalysts, and our projections change: 2035 volumes could approach $1.5 quadrillion, a figure that would surpass the estimated $1 quadrillion in global cross-border payments today.

The possible $100 trillion transition

Starting around 2028, traditional financial institutions in North America and Europe will face a significant demographic shift. Millennials and Gen Z (generations where nearly half have held or currently hold crypto) will become a majority of the adult population, gradually displacing Gen X and Boomers as the dominant financial actors.

Alongside this shift is a massive movement of capital. Merrill Lynch estimates that by 2048, up to $100 trillion in wealth could pass from Boomers to their children and grandchildren.

We estimate that this transition alone could add $508 trillion to annual stablecoin transaction volumes by 2035. It will also likely boost crypto asset adoption more broadly, with ancillary growth in on-chain prediction markets, tokenized real-world assets, and other TradFi-to-crypto hybrid products. For traditional institutions, this creates a dual imperative: capture flows from increasingly crypto-native clients or risk losing capital that migrates to on-chain ecosystems.

Crypto at every point of sale (POS)

The integration of stablecoins into merchant services represents the final stage of on-chain payment utility: a shift from specialized transfers to everyday commerce.

Today, paying with crypto is a deliberate choice. But when stablecoin acceptance becomes standard retail infrastructure, that distinction dissolves—”using crypto” and “buying something” become indistinguishable. The transaction feels no different than swiping a credit or debit card. This shift is already underway, with stablecoin payments quietly moving from a conscious consumer decision to a background settlement process. In stark contrast to legacy card networks, stablecoin rails can enable near-instant merchant settlement and reduce interchange-related costs.

If current trends in transaction count growth hold, on-chain stablecoin transactions could match Visa and Mastercard’s off-chain transactions sometime between 2031 and 2039. But given that adoption curves in payment networks are rarely linear, on-chain transaction counts could intersect or surpass legacy rails before the 2030s.

We estimate that POS saturation alone could add $232 trillion in annual stablecoin volumes by 2035. Just as consumers learned to evaluate credit cards on fees and rewards, they’ll begin weighing crypto rails against traditional ones on the same terms: transaction costs, settlement speed, and cashback incentives. Stablecoin-linked cards will compete directly with legacy payment infrastructure. For incumbents like Visa and Mastercard, this isn’t a distant threat. It’s a countdown.

The institutionalization of on-chain finance

The generational wealth transfer is beginning, and POS saturation is approaching. Together, these forces signal a new financial baseline where stablecoin rails are a core part of the payments infrastructure.

The strategy of traditional financial institutions is evolving from regulatory positioning to active execution, with firms acquiring platforms, forming partnerships, and building the infrastructure needed to operate across both legacy and on-chain rails. For instance, Stripe’s acquisition of Bridge and Mastercard’s partnership with BVNK represent strategic bets on where payments are headed.

For incumbents, the calculus is becoming straightforward. The blockchain is now the essential plumbing for the next era of global payments. The institutions that build for this reality now will be positioned to define it, while those that wait may find themselves settling transactions on someone else’s rails.

FAQs

What is the difference between raw and adjusted stablecoin volume?

Raw volume includes all on-chain activity, whereas adjusted volume filters out “noise” like wash trading and internal transfers to show real-world economic utility, such as payments for goods and services.

How will the “Great Wealth Transfer” affect crypto adoption?

With an estimated $100 trillion moving to Millennials and Gen Z — generations far more comfortable with digital assets — this shift is expected to add over $500 trillion to annual on-chain volumes by 2035.

When will crypto payments reach the same scale as Visa and Mastercard?

Current trends suggest stablecoin transaction volumes will intersect with major card networks between 2031 and 2039 as point-of-sale saturation makes on-chain payments a standard for global commerce.

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