IDC recently brought together 20 senior technology executives for an invitation-only dinner with analysts Carla Arend, Andrew Buss, Duncan Brown, and Rahiel Nasir to discuss digital sovereignty in Europe. Here’s what came out of the room.
IDC opened with a provocation: the word “sovereignty” is doing more harm than good. It’s politically loaded, definitionally contested, and vendors have been guilty of “sovereign washing”. Meanwhile, IT departments struggle to translate the concept into something their internal stakeholders actually care about.
What European organisations do care about is entirely concrete: protection against extra-territorial data requests, regulatory compliance, and supply chain resilience. According to IDC research, these are operational risk priorities, not political statements. The vendors making progress in this space have figured out how to speak to that gap. Those still foisting their own definitions of sovereignty on to the market and/or offering nothing more than so-called solutions for data localisation/residency largely haven’t.
Europe is re-assessing its options for cloud and technology providers. Global hyperscalers remain part of the picture, but how they are used is increasingly open to question. IDC’s data points to a clear shift toward layered architectures that combine global scale with local control. A specific model is emerging as the dominant pattern, and the vendors positioned within it are seeing very different conversations than those sitting outside it.
The regulatory picture adds another layer of complexity. NIS2, DORA, the AI Act: each creates compliance obligations that directly shape how organisations think about their technology infrastructure and provider relationships. Navigating that landscape without a clear positioning is increasingly difficult.
IDC commonly emphasizes that private cloud is the ultimate sovereign cloud, and this remains strongly the case as very few companies wish to exit all their datacenters and move wholesale to the public cloud. As adoption of private cloud has grown and evolved, it has moved from bespoke private cloud implementations towards being built on end-to-end private cloud stacks from major providers, with popular options being Microsoft Azure Local, Google Distributed Cloud, AWS Outposts, or VMware Cloud Foundation. This has resulted in unprecedented capability for enterprises running their own applications and services – but with this has also come a co-dependency on external providers for the ongoing operations of the control plane of the private cloud.
Should any serious technology or political issues arise that interrupts the connection between the public cloud based control plane and the private cloud, services deployed and delivered on the private cloud infrastructure may remain static, degrade over time, or even stop working. The end result is a bought and paid for sovereign physical infrastructure that is unable to operate effectively due to a non-sovereign operations management dependency – and this is a major risk today that a few years ago seemed unthinkable.
European customers have been providing forceful feedback to private cloud stack providers that this public cloud control plane dependency is untenable, and the market is beginning to respond. Most, but not all, providers of private cloud stacks have begun to offer an on-premises approach to the control plane, allowing fully disconnected management of applications or digital services deployment and operations, as well as of licencing tracking and billing, or updates and patching from offline sources. The big challenge though is that these disconnected options are often limited when it comes to go to market, with vendors limiting access to the largest companies or critical national infrastructure providers or the defense industrial complex. While this may be acceptable initially as solutions come to market and are proven, for the longer-term vendors will need to make disconnected operations a core part of their value proposition across the whole customer base.
AI sovereignty has been part of the digital sovereignty debate for some time. But it has now emerged as the new frontier: the question of who controls the models, the data used to train them, and the inference infrastructure is becoming as contested as data residency was five years ago. The general read in the room: AI sovereignty is harder to achieve than data or infrastructure sovereignty, and the messaging across the industry remains inconsistent.
The dinner was one part of a broader IDC programme on digital sovereignty across Europe. If the themes above are relevant to your positioning or go-to-market strategy, here is where to go next.
Digital Sovereignty Beyond the Label – IDC’s Strategic Guide cuts through the definitional noise and explains what buyers actually evaluate when assessing sovereign solutions and providers. Download free.
Missed the webinar? Rahiel Nasir and Duncan Brown covered buyer expectations, sovereign washing, and practical go-to-market guidance on June 18. The on-demand recording is available here.
IDC’s Digital Sovereignty research covers cloud strategy, data governance, regulatory compliance, and infrastructure sovereignty across European markets. Research presented at the dinner was drawn from IDC’s European Digital Sovereignty Survey and the Semiannual Public Cloud Services Tracker.
Rahiel Nasir is Research Director within IDC’s enterprise infrastructure global research domain and part of the cloud and infrastructure services subdomain. He leads IDC's Digital and Cloud Sovereignty research and contributes to IDC’s research on European Cloud adoption trends and…
Andrew Buss is Senior Research Director within IDC’s enterprise infrastructure global research domain. He covers Datacenter Infrastructure Services as part of the Digital and Datacenter Infrastructure Strategies subdomain. Andy’s research focuses on datacenter facilities owned and operated by service providers,…
Duncan Brown leads IDC’s worldwide security products research, covering endpoint, network, identity, cloud, application security. His analysis and opinions on security, cyber-resiliency, sovereignty and AI governance are widely sought by industry leaders and investors, while his comments on industry trends…
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