The Dunning-Kruger effect is basically a thought process where individuals with limited knowledge and competence greatly overestimate their experience.

The phenomena is named after two psychologists — namely David Dunning and Justin Kruger — who co-authored a study in 1999 after they read about the 1995 Greater Pittsburgh bank robberies where the robbers wore lemon juice instead of masks. The study showed that people who performed the poorest at certain tasks, significantly overestimated how good they were at these tasks.

At its core

Essentially, people with a lack of skills often fail to realise their own mistakes. These create a doubled-edged sword which comes with overconfidence as well as poor performance. So, how does this happen?

Ignorance is bliss: Beginners often do not know much of a particular subject to understand how complex it can be. This makes them think they have quickly mastered it.

A little knowledge does not go a long way: A small amount of knowledge can be dangerous, as an old saying goes. Those who gain a little knowledge in a field without realising there is a lot left to learn will become overconfident.

No feedback, no progress: Without external feedback, individuals never realise their skill level is not enough.

Safety net: Overestimating abilities can feel safer or feed the ego more than admitting lack of knowledge.

Contrast and curve

Confidence and competence are not always directly proportional to each other. Highly skilled people often underestimate themselves, assuming (or knowing) that there are people more competent than them. While people who are less competent often overestimate themselves.

We can also look at this like a curve. Beginners come in on a task feeling really confident and optimistic. As they learn more, their confidence starts to drop when they realise how much they don’t know. Later on when they learn more, they gain some confidence in themselves. It is important to know that true expertise comes with a balanced, realistic confidence.

Around us

We may not see it, but the Dunning-Kruger effect is more commonly seen than one might like to think. Let us look at some examples.

A student may think they are thorough with a lesson after just one reading. But, the reality is that they might need to read the lesson a few more times. Students who perform poorly on a test often believe they deserve a higher grade, lacking the competence to accurately judge their own low performance.

Consequences

It’s no surprise what overconfidence can cost you in the long run. Major errors in decision making, spreading misinformation (especially online), the inability to accept feedback are all consequences of the Dunning-Kruger effect. These are not good in the long run for someone to improve themselves in the future.

At the end of the day, the Dunning-Kruger effect reminds us that true intelligence isn’t just knowing things — it’s also knowing what we don’t know.