India’s private weather forecast agency, Skymet, has predicted a below-normal monsoon this year in view of El Nino.
Skymet, which has come out with its prediction of the South-West Monsoon at least 10 days ahead of the India Meteorological Department, expects the monsoon to be 94 per cent (with an error margin of +/- 5 per cent) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the 4-month-long period from June to September.
The South-West Monsoon makes up about three-fourths of the annual rainfall in the country. It is key for kharif crop production, making up over 50 per cent of the total agricultural output annually.
Positive IOD impact
Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, said: “After a year and a half of La Niña conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral. Equatorial Pacific Ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected during the early phase of the South-West Monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year. El Nino return may presage a weaker monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular."
Skymet said besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole has the capacity to drive monsoon circulation. A strong positive IOD event during the season has the potential to partially avert the ill effects of El Nino. The IOD is expected to be neutral or delicately positive. It will approvingly contribute to a decent start of the monsoon. However, the chances of the monsoon getting impaired during the second half of the season can not be dismissed. The seasonal rainfall distribution will be at risk of being diverse and biased.
businessline reported these possibilities in its earlier reports in February and earlier this month.
East, N-E better placed
Skymet expects the core monsoon rainfed zone of the central and western parts to witness inadequate rainfall. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to observe less than normal rains, and more so, during August-September. The eastern and north-eastern parts will be placed better than the rest of the country.
Providing details of the possibilities, the weather agency said chances of excess rainfall were nil (110 per cent and above of LPA), while there was a 10 per cent chance of the rainfall being 105-100 per cent of LPA. Chances of normal rainfall were 20 per cent, while there was a 40 per cent chance of below-normal rainfall and a 30 per cent chance of drought.
Climate swing
Drought-bearing El Nino is a large-scale warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by shifts in tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in wind patterns, air pressure, and rainfall distribution.
In 2023, the event began in June and persisted for 11 months. Though the monsoon was 94 per cent of LPA, it left at least a third of the country dry. Foodgrain output was affected due to this, driving up food inflation.
Before 2023, El Nino emerged between 2018 and 2019. This weak event followed a very strong El Niño during 2014–16.
Economic significance
The South-West monsoon is key to the country’s economic growth as a good kharif harvest leads to a thriving rural economy. Higher purchases by rural India lead to demand for FMCGs, tractors, automobiles, jewellery, electronics and other white goods. Any failure in the monsoon could undermine economic growth.
This year, the below-normal forecast comes at a time when the agriculture sector is facing rising costs of fertilizers, crop inputs and fuel due to the Iran war.
Published on April 7, 2026